Global Impact and Uncertainty Assessment of Sea Level Rise Based on Multiple Climate Models

Tsuchida, Koujiro; Tamura, Makoto; Kumano, Naoko; Masunaga, Eiji; Yokoki, Hiromune

doi:10.2208/jscejer.74.i_167

Cited by 6 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 8 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Projections of steric sea level horizontally differ in the grids of these three GCMs. Tsuchida et al (2018) illustrated horizontal SLR differences in a number of the GCMs and evaluated the uncertainty of their impacts using eight GCMs, two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 and 8.5), and three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; 1-3), as will be explained later. ETOPO1, which provides elevation data on land (mean sea level: MSL) and water depth in a 1-arc-minute global relief model of the Earth's surface that integrates land topography and ocean bathymetry, was averaged on a grid with a 2.5-arc-minute resolution.…”

Section: Assessment Of the Impact Of Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…High tides (MHHWL), which occur roughly twice a month, were combined with the four major component tides (M2: principal lunar semi-diurnal tide; K1: luni-solar diurnal tide; S2: principal solar semi-diurnal tide; O1: principal lunar diurnal tide). The land and sea grids were superimposed on ETOPO1 elevation data and ESRI border data (ESRI 2018) as in Tsuchida et al (2018). The effects of permanent inundation such as SLR due to climate change are considered, while the effects of temporary flooding, such as storm surges by typhoons and tsunamis due to earthquakes, are not.…”

Section: Assessment Of the Impact Of Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Although combinations of RCP8.5 and SSP1 may be rare, the study identified the range between the minimum and maximum impacts. Tsuchida et al (2018Tsuchida et al ( , 2019 globally evaluated the uncertainty of inundation impacts using eight GCMs, two RCPs (2.6 and 8.5), and three SSPs (1-3) and found that the inundation impact may be more dependent on SSP than RCP.…”

Section: Assessment Of the Impact Of Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Estimating the cost of coastal adaptation using mangrove forests against sea level rise

Kumano

Tamura

Inoue

et al. 2021

Coastal Engineering Journal

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sea level rise due to climate change poses a serious threat to human populations in coastal areas. In planning possible countermeasures, it is important to consider the potential economic risks and the cost of any proposed adaptation. This paper examines the cost effectiveness of adaptation measures that combine mangrove afforestation (green infrastructure) and dike construction (gray infrastructure) in areas considered to be at risk of inundation. Based on data for 112 countries and regions where mangrove forests are present along the coastline, the global benefit/cost ratio for the combination of dikes and mangrove is approximately 1.5 times higher than the ratio for dike-only protection. It was found that this type of multiple protection scheme can reduce the number of dikes required and the overall cost of adaptation.

show abstract

Section: Assessment Of the Impact Of Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessment Of the Impact Of Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Assessment Of the Impact Of Inundationmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Estimating the cost of coastal adaptation using mangrove forests against sea level rise

Kumano

Tamura

Inoue

et al. 2021

Coastal Engineering Journal

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The main purpose of this study was to assess the global economic impact of SLR without extreme sea levels, including the indirect effect, based on the RCP and SSP scenarios. We have used a global general equilibrium model, named the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Hub (AIM/Hub, formerly named AIM/CGE) to assess the macroeconomic impacts caused by SLR based on Tsuchida et al [10] and Tamura et al [11], which evaluate the impact of inundation by SLR on the coastal zone, without extreme water levels. We calculate the change of household consumption as a welfare measure and identify regions and situations where the changes are relatively large.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We calculate the change of household consumption as a welfare measure and identify regions and situations where the changes are relatively large. Tsuchida et al [10] and Tamura et al [11] combine the four RCP scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5) and the three SSP scenarios (SSP1, SSP2, and SSP3) to allow for the assessment of their economic impact, taking into account the uncertainties of the future social situation and climate condition. By setting the social situation based on the SSP scenarios when calculating with the CGE model, the change in the equilibrium effect due to the changed social situation is considered.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways

et al. 2020

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Coastal areas provide important services and functions for social and economic activities. Damage due to sea level rise (SLR) is one of the serious problems anticipated and caused by climate change. In this study, we assess the global economic impact of inundation due to SLR by using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model that incorporates detailed coastal damage information. The scenario analysis considers multiple general circulation models, socioeconomic assumptions, and stringency of climate change mitigation measures. We found that the global household consumption loss proportion will be 0.045%, with a range of 0.027−0.066%, in 2100. Socioeconomic assumptions cause a difference in the loss proportion of up to 0.035% without greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation, the so-called baseline scenarios. The range of the loss proportion among GHG emission scenarios is smaller than the differences among the socioeconomic assumptions. We also observed large regional variations and, in particular, the consumption losses in low-income countries are, relatively speaking, larger than those in high-income countries. These results indicate that, even if we succeed in stabilizing the global mean temperature increase below 2 °C, economic losses caused by SLR will inevitably happen to some extent, which may imply that keeping the global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C would be worthwhile to consider.

show abstract

Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?

Tamura

Imamura

Kumano

et al. 2023

Environ Dev Sustain

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Sea level rise (SLR) due to climate change poses a serious threat to human populations in coastal areas. As a result, assessing the impacts of SLR and evaluating potential adaptations is essential. This study assesses the impacts of SLR and ocean tides on coastal Japanese prefectures by estimating the extent of potentially inundated areas, affected populations, and economic damages. The latest climate scenarios, tidal data, and shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are used to estimate the SLR and its inundation effects at a resolution of 1 km. Economic damages are estimated following the methods outlined in the “Manual for economic evaluation of flood control investment (draft).” It was found that all impacts (inundated areas, affected populations, and economic damages) under RCP2.6-SSP1 are significantly smaller than those under RCP8.5-SSP5, suggesting the importance of mitigation efforts. In addition, the study evaluates the cost and effectiveness of protection and relocation adaptations using data on the cost of constructing dikes and the cost of relocating houses and infrastructure. While relocations due to SLR have not yet been undertaken in Japan, the relocation costs could be estimated based on the conventional scheme of community relocation for natural disasters such as life-threatening floods and tsunamis caused by major earthquakes. It was found that the costs of relocation can exceed those of protection under the current framework of Japanese relocation policies.

show abstract

Global Impact and Uncertainty Assessment of Sea Level Rise Based on Multiple Climate Models

Cited by 6 publications

References 8 publications

Estimating the cost of coastal adaptation using mangrove forests against sea level rise

Estimating the cost of coastal adaptation using mangrove forests against sea level rise

An Assessment of Global Macroeconomic Impacts Caused by Sea Level Rise Using the Framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways

Assessing the effectiveness of adaptation against sea level rise in Japanese coastal areas: protection or relocation?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About