Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change
scenarios

Shannon, Sarah E.; Smith, Robin S.; Wiltshire, Andy; Payne, Tony; Huss, Matthias; Betts, Richard; Caesar, John; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Jones, Darren; Harrison, Stephan

doi:10.5194/tc-2018-35

Cited by 23 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Global models pose challenges in terms of unresolved physical processes, regional biases, and limited spatial resolution (Fyke et al, ; Vizcaino, ). Nevertheless, some Earth system models (ESMs) now incorporate full energy balance models and multilayer snow models to calculate ice sheet surface melting in a physically realistic way (Alexander et al, ; Cullather et al, ; Punge et al, ; Shannon et al, ). As noted by Rae et al (), adequate energy balance schemes are a critical prerequisite for modeling SMB realistically, with more detailed snow schemes agreeing better with observations than simpler models.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present‐Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

et al. 2020

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The response of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to a warmer climate is uncertain on long time scales. Climate models, such as those participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), are used to assess this uncertainty. The Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2) is a CMIP6 model capable of running climate simulations with either one‐way coupling (fixed ice sheet geometry) or two‐way coupling (dynamic geometry) to the GrIS. The model features prognostic snow albedo, online downscaling using elevation classes, and a firn pack to refreeze percolating melt water. Here we evaluate the representation of the GrIS surface energy balance and surface mass balance in CESM2 at 1° resolution with fixed GrIS geometry. CESM2 agrees closely with ERA‐Interim reanalysis data for key controls on GrIS SMB: surface pressure, sea ice extent, 500 hPa geopotential height, wind speed, and 700 hPa air temperature. Cloudsat‐CALIPSO data show that supercooled liquid‐containing clouds are adequately represented, whereas comparisons to Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer and CM SAF Cloud, Albedo, and Surface Radiation data set from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data second edition data suggest that CESM2 underestimates surface albedo. The seasonal cycle and spatial patterns of surface energy balance and surface mass balance components in CESM2 agree well with regional climate model RACMO2.3p2, with GrIS‐integrated melt, refreezing, and runoff bracketed by RACMO2 counterparts at 11 and 1 km. Time series of melt, runoff, and SMB show a break point around 1990, similar to RACMO2. These results suggest that GrIS SMB is realistic in CESM2, which adds confidence to coupled ice sheet‐climate experiments that aim to assess the GrIS contribution to future sea level rise.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Present‐Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

et al. 2020

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“…По сценариям изменения климата на пе риод 2006-2100 гг . этот вклад составит 155±41 мм (RCP 4 .5) или 216±44 мм (RCP 8 .5) (29 и 41% со ответственно) [3], тогда как применение других климатических моделей [4] увеличивает эту оцен ку до 247,3 мм . Заметный разброс в этих вели чинах указывает на необходимость более точной оценки запасов льда в ледниках и их возможных изменений при разных сценариях изменения климата .…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Один из возможных путей её решения -при менение косвенных методов, использующих ста тистическую связь между измеренным объёмом ледников V и их измеренной площадью А (A-V скейлинг) [5][6][7], а также применение физически обоснованных моделей, связывающих распреде ление толщины и объёма ледников с их геоме трией, динамикой, балансом массы, скоростью движения [8,9] и другими гляциоклиматиче скими параметрами [4] . Эта задача актуальна и для архипелага Шпицберген (Свальбард), где насчитывается 1615 ледников общей площадью около 33 922 км 2 [10] .…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

“…Эта задача актуальна и для архипелага Шпицберген (Свальбард), где насчитывается 1615 ледников общей площадью около 33 922 км 2 [10] . Их объём, оценённый с применением метода A-V скейлинг, по данным измерений на 60 ледниках, равен 6700±835 км 3 , а вклад в повышение уровня моря составля ет 17±2 мм [11], что согласуется с оценкой 17±4,6 мм по данным [4] . Однако применение имеющихся глобальных [12] и региональных [11] статистических связей между объёмом и площа дью ледников может давать заметные ошибки при оценке запасов льда в ледниках в отдельных районах оледенения, так как при этом не учиты ваются морфологические и другие особенности ледников [11,13] .…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

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Reserve of ice in glaciers on the Nordenskiöld Land, Spitsbergen, and their changes over the last decades

et al. 2019

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Data on thickness and area of 16 glaciers on the Nordenskiöld Land (Svalbard) were obtained in 1999 and 2010–2013. These data were used to determine volume of the glaciers and to establish statistical local relationship between the volume V and the area A (V–A scaling) in the form of the power function V = cAγ, and then to calculate the total ice volume of all 202 glaciers in this area and its changes during the period since 1936 to 2002–2008. The total area of 16 glaciers was 129.9±0.35 km2, 14 of which had areas from 0.2 to 8.1 km2. The two largest ones, the Fridtjof and the West Grenfjord, had the areas 17.5 and 47.3 km2, respectively, and thus occupied about 50% (64.8 km2) of the total area of 16 glaciers. These two glaciers account for 67% of the total measured volume (10,034 km3) of the 16 glaciers. A nonlinear least-squares method was used to estimate ice reserves in all 202 glaciers from data on the volume and area of 16 glaciers. The relation between volume V and area A of the glaciers (V–A scaling) was obtained as the ratio V = 0.03637A1,283 with 95%‑th confidence intervals of the coefficients с and γ, (0.02303–0,4971) and (1.184–1.381), respectively. This made possible to calculate total volume of 202 glaciers as of 2002-2008 state using data from RGI v.6.0, and that prove to be equal to 32.89 (16.75–56.63) km3. To verify this estimation, we applied the bootstrapping method for chosen 43 glaciers and calculated the volume by means of sequential use of data for large and smaller glaciers. According to this estimate, the total volume of 202 glaciers amounted to 30.34 km3 with a 95% confidence interval of 15.42–44.27 km3, that turned out to be slightly smaller than the volume calculated by nonlinear least squares method basing on measurements on 16 glaciers. Despite the large error (on the average, from −49% to +84%) in estimating the total volume of 202 glaciers in the Nordenskiöld Land, the data obtained were used for assessment of relative changes in the total volume of glaciers in this area over different time intervals. During the period from 1936 to1990 (54 years), the total area of all glaciers reduced from 738.1 to 546.7 km2, and the total volume decreased from 49,205 to 34,857 km3. Similar results for the period 1990–2002–2008 (~15 years) are the total area changes from 546.7 to 507.9 km2 and their total volume - from 34.857 to 32.890 km3. The rate of decrease of the volume for the period 1936–1990 was equal to −0.266 km3/year, for the period 1990–2002–2008 – minus 0.131 km3/year, and as a whole for the studied period (since 1936 to 2002–2008) – minus 0.236 km3/year. The average mass balance in the first period was equal to −0.372 m w.e./year, in the second one −0.224 m w.e./year, and for the whole time −0.342 m w.e./year.

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“…JULES is a comprehensive model simulating the atmospheric exchange of radiation, heat, water, momentum, carbon and methane and changes in the surface states of moisture, heat and carbon. All these processes are important for the wide ranging application of JULES from carbon cycle (Le Quéré et al, 2018) 5 to climate impact (Shannon et al, 2018) and hydrological (Betts et al, 2018) modelling. However, each of these applications is best suited to a combination of different processes and schemes, for instance an interactive dynamic vegetation model is important to understanding carbon cycle processes but not crucial to crop modelling (Osborne et al, 2015) and may introduce additional biases and errors.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

JULES-GL7: The Global Land Configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulation version 7.0

Wiltshire¹,

Rojas²,

Edwards³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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Abstract. We present the latest global land configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) model as used in the latest international coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP6). The configuration is defined by the combination of switches, parameter values and ancillary data, which we provide alongside a set of historical forcing data that defines the experimental setup. In addition, we provide a standardised modelling system that runs on the NERC JASMIN cluster accessible to all with links to JULES. This is provided so that users can test and evaluate their own science against the standard configuration to promote community engagement in the development of land surface modelling capability through JULES. It is intended that JULES configurations should be independent of the underlying code base and thus they will be available at the latest release of the JULES code. This means that different code releases will produce scientifically comparable results for a given configuration version. Versioning is therefore determined by the configuration as opposed to the underlying code base.

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Global glacier volume projections under high-end climate change scenarios

Cited by 23 publications

References 39 publications

Present‐Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

Present‐Day Greenland Ice Sheet Climate and Surface Mass Balance in CESM2

Reserve of ice in glaciers on the Nordenskiöld Land, Spitsbergen, and their changes over the last decades

JULES-GL7: The Global Land Configuration of the Joint UK Land Environment Simulation version 7.0

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