Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation

Thomas, Adelle; Theokritoff, Emily; Lesnikowski, Alexandra; Reckien, Diana; Jagannathan, Kripa; Cremades, Roger; Campbell, Donovan; Joe, Elphin Tom; Sitati, Asha; Singh, Chandni; Segnon, Alcade C.; Pentz, Brian; Musah-Surugu, Justice Issah; Mullin, Cristina A.; Mach, Katharine J.; Gichuki, Leah; Galappaththi, Eranga K.; Chalastani, Vasiliki Ι.; Ajibade, Idowu; Ruiz-Díaz, Raquel; Grady, Caitlin; Garschagen, Matthias; Ford, James D.; Bowen, Kathryn

doi:10.1007/s10113-021-01808-9

Cited by 67 publications

(47 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…The GAMI dataset has been used to provide global, regional, and sectoral reviews of adaptation feasibility (Williams et al 2021), policy tools to support climate adaptation (Ulibarri et al 2021), responses to climaterelated water scarcity (Leal Filho et al 2022), equity in adaptation (Araos et al 2021), health effects of adaptation (Scheelbeek et al 2021), constraints and limits to adaptation (Thomas et al 2021), adaptation to extreme heat (Turek-Hankins et al 2021), adaptation in conflict affected areas (Sitati et al 2021), and a systematic global stocktake of evidence of human adaptation to climate change (Berrang-Ford et al 2021b). Our assessment here focuses on water sector responses within the five hundred and seventy (570) articles on the region of Africa.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment

et al. 2022

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Evidence is increasing of human responses to the impacts of climate change in Africa. However, understanding of the effectiveness of these responses for adaptation to climate change across the diversity of African contexts is still limited. Despite high reliance on indigenous knowledge (IK) and local knowledge (LK) for climate adaptation by African communities, potential of IK and LK to contribute to adaptation through reducing climate risk or supporting transformative adaptation responses is yet to be established. Here, we assess the influence of IK and LK for the implementation of water sector adaptation responses in Africa to better understand the relationship between responses to climate change and indigenous and local knowledge systems. Eighteen (18) water adaptation response types were identified from the academic literature through the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) and intended nationally determined contributions (iNDCs) for selected African countries. Southern, West, and East Africa show relatively high evidence of the influence of IK and LK on the implementation of water adaptation responses, while North and Central Africa show lower evidence. At country level, Zimbabwe displays the highest evidence (77.8%) followed by Ghana (53.6%), Kenya (46.2%), and South Africa (31.3%). Irrigation, rainwater harvesting, water conservation, and ecosystem-based measures, mainly agroforestry, were the most implemented measures across Africa. These were mainly household and individual measures influenced by local and indigenous knowledge. Adaptation responses with IK and LK influence recorded higher evidence of risk reduction compared to responses without IK and LK. Analysis of iNDCs shows the most implemented water adaptation actions in academic literature are consistent with water sector adaptation targets set by most African governments. Yet only 10.4% of the African governments included IK and LK in adaptation planning in the iNDCs. This study recommends a coordinated approach to adaptation that integrates multiple knowledge sources, including IK and LK, to ensure sustainability of both current and potential water adaptation measures in Africa.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment

et al. 2022

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“…The presence of limits to adaptation has been long recognized (Adger et al, 2009), yet there are few empirical studies addressing this (Ahmed et al, 2018;Mechler et al, 2020;Thomas et al, 2021). An adaptation limit is defined as a point at which an agent can no longer secure valued objectives from intolerable risk through adaptive action (Dow et al, 2013).…”

Section: Connecting Social Tipping Points Adaptation Limits and Syste...mentioning

confidence: 99%

Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance

et al. 2022

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Physical tipping points have gained a lot of attention in global and climate change research to understand the conditions for system transitions when it comes to the atmosphere and the biosphere. Social tipping points have been framed as mechanisms in socio-environmental systems, where a small change in the underlying elements or behavior of actors triggers a large non-linear response in the social system. With climate change becoming more acute, it is important to know whether and how societies can adapt. While social tipping points related to climate change have been associated with positive or negative outcomes, overstepping adaptation limits has been linked to adverse outcomes where actors' values and objectives are strongly compromised. Currently, the evidence base is limited, and most of the discussion on social tipping points in climate change adaptation and risk research is conceptual or anecdotal. This paper brings together three strands of literature - social tipping points, climate adaptation limits and systemic risks, which so far have been separate. Furthermore, we discuss methods and models used to illustrate the dynamics of social and adaptation tipping points in the context of cascading risks at different scales beyond adaptation limits. We end with suggesting that further evidence is needed to identify tipping points in social systems, which is crucial for developing appropriate governance approaches.

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“…The paucity of evidence from The Gambia and the highly contextual and differential impacts of the identified adaptation options underscore the importance of careful consideration of barriers and enablers when developing policy and interventions in order to sustainably increase productivity and income while building resilience to climate risks and reducing GHGs emissions (Thomas et al, 2021). Also, this paucity highlights key knowledge gaps that require further investigation.…”

Section: Conclusion and Recommendationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change adaptation options to inform planning of agriculture and food systems in The Gambia: A systematic approach for stocktaking

Segnon

Zougmoré²,

Green³

et al. 2022

Front. Sustain. Food Syst.

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Identifying and assessing adaptation options are key pre-requisite steps to adaptation prioritization and effective adaptation planning. In this paper, we presented a systematic approach for adaptation stocktaking, combining a systematic mapping and an outcome-oriented and evidence-based assessment, illustrated using the case of The Gambia. This study systematically mapped 24 adaptation options that can potentially inform adaptation planning in The Gambia agriculture and food systems and assessed how the identified options contribute to the pillars of Climate-Smart Agriculture. Because of the paucity of evidence sources from The Gambia, we collated evidence from both The Gambia and the West Africa region. We found that many of the documented options, such as climate-resilient crop varieties, crop diversification, climate information use, and weather indexed-based insurance have the potential to increase agricultural productivity and income while building resilience to climate change. While several options, such as soil and water conservation practices can positively contribute to climate change mitigation, others such as manure and inorganic fertilizers can have no or negative impacts on mitigation. Agroforestry practices and System of Rice Intensification have the potential to make a triple impact. The paucity of evidence from The Gambia and the highly contextual and differential impacts of the identified adaptation options underscore the importance of careful consideration of barriers and enablers when developing and deploying policy and interventions to sustainably increase productivity and income while building resilience to climate risks and reducing GHGs emissions. Stakeholder engagement and participatory research action are crucial in selecting and testing the priority adaptation options which can maximize their potentials in specific agricultural and food system contexts, such as in The Gambia. Because of the heterogeneity in household vulnerability and socioecological circumstances, targeting options to the right contexts will also be crucial to avoid maladaptation. We highlighted key knowledge gaps in the understanding of the effectiveness and feasibility of the identified adaptation options in The Gambia. Beyond The Gambia, the approach can also be useful for and replicated in other least developed countries in the West African region, that are currently developing their National Adaptation Plan.

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Global evidence of constraints and limits to human adaptation

Cited by 67 publications

References 61 publications

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment

The role of indigenous knowledge and local knowledge in water sector adaptation to climate change in Africa: a structured assessment

Social tipping points and adaptation limits in the context of systemic risk: Concepts, models and governance

Climate change adaptation options to inform planning of agriculture and food systems in The Gambia: A systematic approach for stocktaking

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