Global estimation of crop productivity and the impacts of global warming by GIS and EPIC integration

Tan, Guoxin; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

doi:10.1016/s0304-3800(03)00146-7

Cited by 202 publications

(109 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

107

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…The US Department of Agriculture and the International Rice Research Institute have both concluded that with each 18C increase in temperature during the growing season, the yields of rice, wheat and maize drop by 10% ( Tan & Shibasaki 2003;Brown 2004). Cash crops such as coffee and tea, requiring cooler environments, will also be affected, forcing farmers of these crops to move higher up the hills, clearing new lands as they climb.…”

Section: The Challenge Of Managing Agricultural Landscapes In the Twementioning

confidence: 99%

Biodiversity conservation and agricultural sustainability: towards a new paradigm of ‘ecoagriculture’ landscapes

Scherr¹,

McNeely

2007

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

610

369

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The dominant late twentieth century model of land use segregated agricultural production from areas managed for biodiversity conservation. This module is no longer adequate in much of the world. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment confirmed that agriculture has dramatically increased its ecological footprint. Rural communities depend on key components of biodiversity and ecosystem services that are found in non-domestic habitats. Fortunately, agricultural landscapes can be designed and managed to host wild biodiversity of many types, with neutral or even positive effects on agricultural production and livelihoods. Innovative practitioners, scientists and indigenous land managers are adapting, designing and managing diverse types of 'ecoagriculture' landscapes to generate positive co-benefits for production, biodiversity and local people. We assess the potentials and limitations for successful conservation of biodiversity in productive agricultural landscapes, the feasibility of making such approaches financially viable, and the organizational, governance and policy frameworks needed to enable ecoagriculture planning and implementation at a globally significant scale. We conclude that effectively conserving wild biodiversity in agricultural landscapes will require increased research, policy coordination and strategic support to agricultural communities and conservationists.

show abstract

Section: The Challenge Of Managing Agricultural Landscapes In the Twementioning

confidence: 99%

Biodiversity conservation and agricultural sustainability: towards a new paradigm of ‘ecoagriculture’ landscapes

Scherr¹,

McNeely

2007

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

610

369

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…1 Our interpretation is that warmer temperatures led to increased costs of raiding for slaves. Higher temperatures reduce productivity in tropical agriculture (Kurukulasuriya and Mendelsohn, 2008;Lobell and Field, 2007;Tan and Shibasaki, 2003) and increase mortality (Burgess et al, 2011). In our baseline specification, the decline in slave exports in response to a 1 • C temperature increase is roughly 3,000 slaves.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate and the slave trade

Fenske

Kala

2015

Journal of Development Economics

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

ABSTRACT. African societies exported more slaves in colder years. Lower temperatures reduced mortality and raised agricultural yields, lowering slave supply costs. Our results help explain African participation in the slave trade, which predicts adverse outcomes today. We use an annual panel of African temperatures and port-level slave exports to show that exports declined when local temperatures were warmer than normal. This result is strongest where African ecosystems are least resilient to climate change. Cold weather shocks at the peak of the slave trade predict lower economic activity today. We support our interpretation using the histories of Whydah, Benguela, and Mozambique.

show abstract

“…Daily values of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity were used in the EPIC model to assess the probability distribution of DI. Field management data included the growth period of global maize [50], global agricultural irrigation patterns [51], and global fertilizer application [52]. The irrigation and fertilizer data were defined as "maximum annual irrigation volume allowed" and "maximum annual nitrogen fertilizer application" for a crop respectively when running the EPIC model.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought Risk Assessment Based on Vulnerability Surfaces: A Case Study of Maize

et al. 2016

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:Agriculture is a sector easily affected by meteorological conditions. Crop yield reduction, even regional conflicts, may occur during a drought. It is extremely important to improve the state of our knowledge on agricultural drought risk. This study has proposed a new method (vulnerability surfaces) for assessing vulnerability quantitatively and continuously by including the environmental variable as an additional perspective on exposure and assessed global maize drought risk based on these surfaces. In this research, based on the Environmental Policy Impact Climate (EPIC) model, irrigation scenarios were adopted to fit "Loss rate-Drought index-Environmental indicator (L-D-E)" vulnerability surfaces by constructing a database suitable for risk assessment on a large scale. Global maize drought risk was quantitatively assessed based on its optimal vulnerability surface. The results showed an R 2 for the optimal vulnerability surface of 0.9934, with coarse fragment content as the environmental indicator. The expected global average annual yield loss rate due to drought was 19.18%. The global average yield loss rate due to drought with different return periods (10a, 20a, 50a, and 100a) was 29.18%, 32.76%, 36.89%, and 38.26%, respectively. From a global perspective, Central Asia, the Iberian Peninsula, Eastern Africa, the Midwestern United States, Chile, and Brazil are the areas with the highest maize drought risk. The vulnerability surface is a further development of the vulnerability curve as a continuous expression of vulnerability and considers differences in environmental factors. It can reflect the spatial heterogeneity of crop vulnerability and can be applied in large-scale risk assessment research.

show abstract

Global estimation of crop productivity and the impacts of global warming by GIS and EPIC integration

Cited by 202 publications

References 19 publications

Biodiversity conservation and agricultural sustainability: towards a new paradigm of ‘ecoagriculture’ landscapes

Biodiversity conservation and agricultural sustainability: towards a new paradigm of ‘ecoagriculture’ landscapes

Climate and the slave trade

Drought Risk Assessment Based on Vulnerability Surfaces: A Case Study of Maize

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About