Global Epidemiology of First 90 Days into COVID-19 Pandemic: Disease Incidence, Prevalence, Case Fatality Rate and Their Association with Population Density, Urbanisation and Elderly Population

Abstract

As the COVID-19 pandemic marches exponentially, epidemiological data is of high importance to analyse the current situation and guide intervention strategies. This study analyses the epidemiological data of COVID-19 from 17 countries, representing 85 per cent of the total cases within first 90 days of lockdown in Wuhan, China. It follows a population-level observational study design and includes countries with 20,000 cases (or higher) as of 21 April 2020. We sourced the data for these 17 countries from worldometers. info, a digital platform being used by several media and reputed academic institutions worldwide. We calculated the prevalence, incidence, case fatality rate and trends in the epidemiology of COVID-19, and its correlation with population density, urbanisation and elderly population. The analysis represents 85 per cent ( N = 2,183,661) of all cases within the first 90 days of the pandemic. Across the analysed period, the burden of the pandemic primarily focused on high- and middle-income countries of Asia, Europe and North America. While the total number of cases and deaths are highest in USA, the prevalence, incidence and case fatality rates are higher in the European countries. The prevalence and incidence vary widely among countries included in the analysis, and the number of cases per million and the case fatality rate are correlated with the proportion of the elderly population and to a lesser extent with the proportion of the urban population.

Analysing the reported incidence of COVID-19 and factors associated in the World Health Organization African region as of 31 December 2020

“…A concentrated outbreak, especially in major cities, makes containment and response measures easier to implement, especially in a context of limited capacity and scarce resources. Unlike our study, Gupta S et al [35] found that the number of cases per million was correlated with the percentage of urban population in 17 countries in Europe and America. Gupta D et al [36] found a positive association between urbanization and COVID-19 incidence in India.…”

Estimation of novel coronavirus (COVID‐19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: A systematic review and meta‐analysis

“…For each selected article, publication details [title, first author, publication year, journal name and publisher]; design and population [country, study design, study period, and sample size]; participants' characteristics and major findings [number of deaths, case fatality rate, basic reproduction number, confidence interval, methods used, SD, and other related statistics] were extracted. Forty‐five research articles 7,9‐11,14‐54 for R 0 and 34 research articles 13,18,50,55‐85 for CFR estimation were selected.…”

Estimation of novel coronavirus (covid-19) reproduction number and case fatality rate: a systematic review and meta-analysis

“…For each selected articles, the following information’s were extracted: publication details [title, first author, publication year, journal name and publisher]; design and population [country, study design, study period, and sample size]; participants’ characteristics and major findings [number of deaths, case fatality rate, basic reproduction number, confidence interval, methods applied, standard deviation, and any other relevant statistics]. Forty five research articles [7,9,20–29,10,30–39,11,40–49,14,50–54,15–19] for R 0 and 34 research articles [13,15,62–71,24,72–81,55,82–85,56–61] for CFR estimation were selected.…”