Global energy modelling — A biophysical approach (GEMBA) Part 2: Methodology

Dale, Michael; Krumdieck, Susan; Bodger, P.S.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2011.10.028

Cited by 64 publications

(50 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…However, including energy as a factor of production remains controversial. One argument is that energy is not an independent, primary input, but instead as an intermediate quantity made by labour and capital is thereby redundant (see Dales' Biophysical GEMBA model as an example reflecting this argument [88,89]). To counter, the same argument could be applied to capital (i.e., you cannot make capital without labour), and authors including Stern [90] advocate energy as an independent factor of production.…”

Section: Wider Literature Searchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation

et al. 2017

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Capital-labour-energy Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functions and their estimated parameters now form a key part of energy-economy models which inform energy and emissions policy. However, the collation and guidance as to the specification and estimation choices involved with such energy-extended CES functions is disparate. This risks poorly specified and estimated CES functions, with knock-on implications for downstream energy-economic models and climate policy. In response, as a first step, this paper assembles in one place the major considerations involved in the empirical estimation of these CES functions. Discussions of the choices and their implications lead to recommendations for CES empiricists. The extensive bibliography allows those interested to dig deeper into any aspect of the CES parameter estimation process.

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Section: Wider Literature Searchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation

et al. 2017

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“…In addition, there have been several publications relating EROI to long-term economic growth, firm profitability and oil prices [3,[13][14][15]. The main objective of this paper is to use this literature to explain the implications that declining EROI may have for long-term economic growth.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The implications of the declining energy return on investment of oil production

Murphy

2014

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Declining production from conventional oil resources has initiated a global transition to unconventional oil, such as tar sands. Unconventional oil is generally harder to extract than conventional oil and is expected to have a (much) lower energy return on (energy) investment (EROI). Recently, there has been a surge in publications estimating the EROI of a number of different sources of oil, and others relating EROI to long-term economic growth, profitability and oil prices. The following points seem clear from a review of the literature: (i) the EROI of global oil production is roughly 17 and declining, while that for the USA is 11 and declining; (ii) the EROI of ultra-deep-water oil and oil sands is below 10; (iii) the relation between the EROI and the price of oil is inverse and exponential; (iv) as EROI declines below 10, a point is reached when the relation between EROI and price becomes highly nonlinear; and (v) the minimum oil price needed to increase the oil supply in the near term is at levels consistent with levels that have induced past economic recessions. From these points, I conclude that, as the EROI of the average barrel of oil declines, long-term economic growth will become harder to achieve and come at an increasingly higher financial, energetic and environmental cost.

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“…Solar and wind represent proven technologies of a certain maturity, but their intermittency represents an obstacle that is held by some to be a fundamental constraint to further 25 growth. These and other constraints have been discussed in many recent papers, e.g., Moriarty and Honnery (2011);Dale et al (2011);Hall et al (2014); Davidsson et al (2014). These outline a large number of restraining factors that that may slow, and possibly halt growth of renewable energies, whose low energy return on investment may negatively impact general economic growth.…”

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confidence: 99%

Can Limits to Growth in the Renewable Energy Sector be Inferred by Curve Fitting to Historical Data?

Rypdal

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. The paper examines the assertion that limits to growth in the renewable energy sector can be inferred statistically from global historical data for installed capacity of solar and wind power. This claim has been made in the peer reviewed scientific literature and has been subject to considerable media coverage. If true, the harsh implication is that the substitution of fossil fuels by renewables is impossible due to Earth System constraints. It is demonstrated here that rational selection between an exponential and a logistic growth model cannot be made from existing data for the historical evolution of global 5 installed capacity. For global power consumption, the growth limit for a fitted logistic model is so high that the growth is indistinguishable from exponential growth for any practical purpose. It is observed that some regional data show polynomial, rather than exponential, growth. But there are no signs of levelling off to a finite limit, and it is suggested that the difference between global and regional growth patterns may be that increasing technology transfer to undeveloped areas gives an extra impetus to the global growth. If this is the case we may see slower than exponential growth in the future without a definite 10 growth limit. These overall negative results regarding drawing definite conclusion from statistical considerations lead to the conclusion that, even though statistical methods are indispensable in energy planning, they are not a substitute for physical and economic modelling.

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Global energy modelling — A biophysical approach (GEMBA) Part 2: Methodology

Cited by 64 publications

References 17 publications

Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation

Energy-Extended CES Aggregate Production: Current Aspects of Their Specification and Econometric Estimation

The implications of the declining energy return on investment of oil production

Can Limits to Growth in the Renewable Energy Sector be Inferred by Curve Fitting to Historical Data?

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