Global energy demand projection based on the GESDA model

Abstract

A global energy demand projection model (GESDA), including the global energy service demand module, the energy system optimization module and the carbon emission module, for projections of global energy service demand , energy demand and supply, and associated carbon emissions. Projections of global energy demand and carbon emissions for main energy-intensive sectors are made based on assumptions concerning future population and economic growth. The results show: 1) In the 2℃ Scenario, from 2014 to 2050, global primary energy demand will increase from 20.1 billion tce to nearly 30.0 billion tce; 2) From 2014 to 2050, the supply of non-fossil energy will increase by 3.8 times and its proportion to the supply of primary energy will ascend over 50%; 3) carbon emission will increase from 33.5 billion tons in 2014 to 36.0 billion tons in 2025, followed by negative increase. By 2050, the emission will drop to 11.5 billion tons, about 50% of that in 1990.