Global Economic and Financial Effects of 21st Century Pandemics and Epidemics

Ma, Chang; Rogers, John H.; Zhou, Sili

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3565646

Cited by 83 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…The IMF's June World Economic Outlook projects US growth of about -8 percent in 2020, compared to the January projection of 2 percent, resulting in a potential output loss of about $2.1 trillion, or about $175 billion a month. If the pandemic is more protracted than expected, it would result in further substantial and permanent losses (Cerra, Fatas, andSaxena 2020 andMa, Rogers, andZhou 2020).…”

Section: The Exorbitant Cost Of a Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cherif¹,

Hasanov²

2020

IMF Working Papers

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A universal testing and isolation policy is the most viable way to vanquish a pandemic. Its implementation requires: (i) an epidemiological rather than clinical approach to testing, sacrificing accuracy for scalability, convenience and speed; and (ii) state intervention to ramp up production, similar to True Industrial Policy (TIP), on a global level to achieve a scale and speed the market alone would fail to provide. We sketch a strategy to tackle market failures and implement smart testing, especially in densely populated areas. The estimated cost of testing is dwarfed by its return, mitigating the economic fallout of the pandemic.

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Section: The Exorbitant Cost Of a Pandemicmentioning

confidence: 99%

A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

Cherif¹,

Hasanov²

2020

IMF Working Papers

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“…Out-of-home consumption is currently being affected the most, with businesses in this market facing acute cash flow issues and staff layoffs [8], either directly when they serve final consumers or indirectly because they supply other businesses geared to out-of-home consumption. The immediate impact on local rural economies will therefore depend on their composition between goods and services geared to in-home and out-of-home consumption and the degree to which businesses can reorient their operations from the latter to the former (for example, a restaurant offering home delivery).…”

Section: The Demand and Supply Side Effects Of Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The demand for goods and services is also affected by the nature of the measures adopted by public health representatives to limit the diffusion or aid the treatment of the disease [8]. Restrictions imposed by the EU governments cut across the drivers, structures and capacities of economies, determining the businesses and facilities that should cease and those that can continue opening or trading, as well as limitations on household and business travel.…”

Section: The Demand and Supply Side Effects Of Covid-19mentioning

confidence: 99%

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Implications for Rural Economies

et al. 2020

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This paper presents a rapid assessment of current and likely future impacts of the COVID-19 outbreak on rural economies given their socio-economic characteristics. Drawing principally on current evidence for the UK, as well as lessons from the 2001 Foot and Mouth Disease outbreak and the 2007/8 financial crises, it outlines the likely key demand and supply effects, paying attention to the situation for agriculture as well as discussing the implications for rural communities. A distinction is made between the effects on businesses offering goods and services for out-of-home as opposed to in-home consumption. Gendered dimensions are also noted as likely business and household strategies for coping and adaptation. The paper concludes with a brief mapping of a research agenda for studying the longer-term effects of COVID-19 on rural economies.

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“…Erdem [55] investigated stock market indices of 75 nations and supported that markets are negatively influenced by the pandemic. Therefore, the coronavirus health calamity switched into a wider economic and financial disaster [56], marked by decline in business profitability and employment, alongside an upsurge in debt [57]. To these concerns are added the ongoing challenges like stimulating trade, fintech, digital transformation, and combating climate change.…”

Section: Prior Research Regarding the Economic And Financial Consequementioning

confidence: 99%

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

Gherghina

Armeanu

Joldeș

2020

IJERPH

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This paper examines the linkages in financial markets during coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak. For this purpose, daily stock market returns were used over the period of December 31, 2019–April 20, 2020 for the following economies: USA, Spain, Italy, France, Germany, UK, China, and Romania. The study applied the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to explore whether the Romanian stock market is impacted by the crisis generated by novel coronavirus. Granger causality was employed to investigate the causalities among COVID-19 and stock market returns, as well as between pandemic measures and several commodities. The outcomes of the ARDL approach failed to find evidence towards the impact of Chinese COVID-19 records on the Romanian financial market, neither in the short-term, nor in the long-term. On the other hand, our quantitative approach reveals a negative effect of the new deaths’ cases from Italy on the 10-year Romanian bond yield both in the short-run and long-run. The econometric research provide evidence that Romanian 10-year government bond is more sensitive to the news related to COVID-19 than the index of the Bucharest Stock Exchange. Granger causality analysis reveals causal associations between selected stock market returns and Philadelphia Gold/Silver Index.

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Global Economic and Financial Effects of 21st Century Pandemics and Epidemics

Cited by 83 publications

References 31 publications

A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

A TIP Against the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 Pandemic and Its Implications for Rural Economies

Stock Market Reactions to COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak: Quantitative Evidence from ARDL Bounds Tests and Granger Causality Analysis

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