Global Decline in Suitable Habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: The Role of Climate Change

Abstract

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68–152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66–15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11–16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

Projected expansion in climatic suitability for Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas Disease, and five widespread Triatoma species by 2070: the role of climate change on infectious diseases

“…The sandfly, a prominent vector of Leishmania parasites, is predicted to expand northward into the United States and can increase transmission risk in novel foci [60]. With the future expansion of pathogens into novel foci, there can be a shift or decline in habitat suitability in current foci, leading to a decline of infections in current foci [11], [17], [61].…”

“…Additionally, projections estimate climate change will influence the distribution and expansion of tropical diseases, notably vector-borne diseases, throughout temperate regions [10–11]. Because of the effects of observed changes in the distribution and phenology of organisms caused by warming in the 20th century, it is important to model how climate change may influence infectious disease ecology within domestic, wildlife, and human populations [16–17].…”

“…ENM is an essential tool for understanding the geographic dimensions of the risk of transmission of T. cruzi . ENM facilitates the exploration of geographic and ecologic phenomena based on known occurrences of the study species [17], [31–32]. ENM is used to better understand the epidemiology of T. cruzi through niche characterization of triatomines, and relationships between vector and reservoir distributions [19], [33].…”

First Evidence of Angiostrongyliasis Caused by Angiostrongylus cantonensis in Guadeloupe, Lesser Antilles

“…The spread of Angiostrongylus spp. has been driven by climate change 5 as well as human activity due to transatlantic and transpacific trading. This leads to dispersion of carrier hosts along with transportation of consumable materials.…”

Spread of the Rat Lungworm (Angiostrongylus cantonensis) in Giant African Land Snails (Lissachatina fulica) in Florida, USA

“…We collected one snail from core four during this study and it was positive for rat lungworm. The range of L. fulica infected (York et al 2014). The rat lungworm is an emerging threat to humans and wildlife that should be routinely monitored.…”