Global Decarbonization: Current Status and What It Will Take to Achieve Net Zero by 2050

Abstract

A review of global CO2 emissions over the last century shows that emissions from 80 economies contributed to 95% of global emissions. Among them, 55 economies were decarbonizers, where CO2 emissions had either plateaued or were declining, while 25 economies were polluters, where CO2 emissions were still increasing. In 2021, the global CO2 emissions were 37.1 Gtpa, with 56% coming from polluters and 39% from decarbonizers. If current trends continue, global CO2 emissions will reach 49.6 Gtpa by 2050, with 81% coming from polluters and 14% from decarbonizers. Only 14 economies will reach net zero. The decarbonization target, over and above current efforts, to achieve net zero is calculated for each economy. Decarbonizers need to mitigate 230 Mtpa CO2 and polluters 1365 Mtpa CO2 beginning in 2021 to reach the net-zero target by 2050. This target will increase each year decarbonization is delayed. Analyses show that renewable energies’ share in the total final energy consumption in most economies increased by an average of only 4 percentage points in the last decade, which is inadequate for achieving net zero by 2050. Other means of decarbonization, including low-carbon fossil solutions through carbon capture and storage, will be needed. Pathways to accelerate decarbonization are proposed and their policy implications are discussed.

The Contribution of Carbon Capture and Storage to the Decarbonization of India’s Steel Industry

“…Each of these six projects will involve mitigating over 7 Mtpa CO 2 . Given the size of CO 2 emission by the Indian steel industry, projects of this magnitude will be needed for India to achieve net zero by 2070. , Calculations by Lau and Tsai show that to meet the net zero goal by 2050, India needs to mitigate another 200 Mtpa CO 2 over and above existing efforts . These CCS projects will mitigate half of this amount.…”

“…40 With increasing global attention to decarbonizing the steel industry, it seems likely the EU and US will soon impose a crossborder carbon tax on imported high-carbon intensity steel. 42,43 Therefore, India's steel industry will have to lower its carbon intensity to compete in the world market. In addition, promulgation of energy policies to incentivize both public and private steel companies to lower their carbon footprint will be useful.…”

A Longitudinal Study on the History of Energy Transition and Its Implications on Global Decarbonization

“…Our recently published research has shown that out of the top 80 emitters of the world, 25 countries have CO 2 emission that is still increasing with GDP. 34 When countries reach the high per capita GDP stage (> $25,000), they start using less CO 2 -intensive natural gas to replace coal and increase their use of REN, which emits little to no CO 2 . At this third stage of energy transition, a country's economy starts to decouple from and decreases with CO 2 emission.…”

“…Our recently published research has shown that of all the top 80 emitters of the world, 55 have reached this stage. 34 It should be noted that Figures 6, 8, and 10 are plotted with per capita CO 2 in a logarithmic scale and per capita GPD on a linear scale. Although the per capita CO 2 emissions of various economies in the same per capita GDP category (low, moderate, and high) follow the same pattern, they do not lie on the same curve.…”

“…As there are numerous factors affecting the energy transition (Figure ), there are also a number of energy transition theories that deal with different aspects of the energy transition, such as techno-economic, techno-social, market, policy, and energy security, etc. In a recent paper, Lau and Tsai have summarized the status of global decarbonization and proposed using low-carbon fossil technologies and CCS to achieve net zero by 2050 . The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also published a recent report outlining the technological aspects of achieving net zero by 2050 .…”