Global Climate Model projected changes in 10 m wind speed and direction due to anthropogenic climate change

McInnes, Kathleen L.; Erwin, Tim; Bathols, Janice

doi:10.1002/asl.341

Cited by 138 publications

(115 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Cod larval survival, which is believed to be critical in determining year class strength (50), likely benefits from a prolonged spring bloom increasing the overlap between larval and zooplankton production (51). Enhanced stratification might improve food availability for cod larvae and other predators on zooplankton at high latitudes in spring, but according to our findings, conditions in summer are more unpredictable, in part due to the uncertainty in future wind fields (52,53).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton

Kvile

Langangen

Prokopchuk

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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Understanding how climate influences ecosystems is complicated by the many correlated and interrelated impacting factors. Here we quantify climate effects on Calanus finmarchicus in the northeastern Norwegian Sea and southwestern Barents Sea. By combining oceanographic drift models and statistical analyses of field data from 1959 to 1993 and investigating effects across trophic levels, we are able to elucidate pathways by which climate influences zooplankton. The results show that both chlorophyll biomass in spring and C. finmarchicus biomass in summer relate positively to a combination of shallow mixed layer depth and increased wind in spring, suggesting that C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is influenced by bottom-up effects of food availability. Furthermore, spatially resolved C. finmarchicus biomass in summer is linked to favorable transport from warmer, core areas to the south. However, increased mean temperature in spring does not lead to increased C. finmarchicus biomass in summer. Rather, spring biomass is generally higher, but population growth from spring to summer is lower, after a warm compared with a cold spring. Our study illustrates how improved understanding of climate effects can be obtained when different datasets and different methods are combined in a unified approach. responses in zooplankton phenology, distribution, abundance, and composition (1, 2), but the controlling mechanisms behind the associations are often elusive. For example, a change in temperature might directly affect zooplankton physiology (3) or indirectly influence zooplankton through effects on their prey (4) or ecosystem trophic structure (5). To make realistic projections of climate effects on marine ecosystems, there is a need for improved understanding of the mechanisms by which climate affects the different trophic levels.The Atlantic waters of the Norwegian Sea-Barents Sea (NS-BS) host a highly productive ecosystem including several large fish stocks of high socioeconomic importance (6). The area experienced increased water temperatures during the past decades (7) and is, like other high-latitude regions, predicted to warm substantially throughout the 21st century (8). Climate simulations further suggest globally increased ocean stratification, accompanied by decreased primary production in temperate regions but increased primary production in the subarctic (including the Barents Sea) (9, 10).Calanus finmarchicus dominates mesozooplankton biomass and is an important predator on phytoplankton throughout the North Atlantic (11, 12). In the NS-BS, young stages of C. finmarchicus are preyed upon by larvae of demersal fish, and older stages are preyed upon by various pelagic stocks (12, 13). Several studies have indicated that C. finmarchicus in the NS-BS is top-down controlled, particularly by Barents Sea capelin (14-16) and Norwegian spring spawning herring (17, 18). Consistent effects of climate or food availability have on the other hand rarely been demonstrated in situ (19-21).Investigating environmental effects on z...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 68%

Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton

Kvile

Langangen

Prokopchuk

et al. 2016

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

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“…Long-term changes in the SWS can affect water vapor evaporation and hydrological cycles in some regions (Rayner 2007;McVicar et al 2007;Donohue et al 2010;Niyogi et al 2011;Mclnnes et al 2011;McMahon et al 2013). Previous studies have attributed decreases in pan-evaporation to long-term decreases in SWS in some regions over the past 50 years (Roderick et al 2007;McVicar et al 2012a).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

et al. 2017

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drag forces are caused by changes in the external and internal friction in the atmosphere. Changes in surface friction are mainly caused by changes in the surface roughness due to land use and cover change (LUCC), including urbanization, and changes in internal friction are mainly induced by changes in the boundary layer characteristics. Future studies should compare the spatio-temporal differences in SWS between high and low altitudes and quantify the effects of different factors on the SWS. Additionally, in-depth analysis of extreme SWS events and prediction of future mean and extreme SWS values at global and regional scales are also necessary. Abstract Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed (SWS) are induced by a combination of anthropogenic activities and natural climate changes. Thus, the study of the long-term changes of SWS and their causes is very important for recognizing the effects of these processes. Although the slowdown in SWS has been analyzed in previous studies, to the best of knowledge, no overall comparison or detailed examination of this research has been performed. Similarly, the causes of the decreases in SWS and the best directions of future research have not been discussed in depth. Therefore, we analyzed a series of studies reporting SWS trends spanning the last 30 years from around the world. The changes in SWS differ among different regions. The most significant decreases have occurred in Central Asia and North America, with mean linear trends of − 0.11 m s −1 decade −1 ; the second most significant decreases have occurred in Europe, East Asia, and South Asia, with mean linear trends of − 0.08 m s −1 decade −1 ; and the weakest decrease has occurred in Australia. Although the SWS in Africa has decreased, this region lacks long-term observational data. Therefore, the uncertainties in the long-term SWS trend are higher in this region than in other regions. The changes in SWS, caused by a mixture of global-, regional-, and localscale factors, are mainly due to changes in driving forces and drag forces. The changes in the driving forces are caused by changes in atmospheric circulation, and the changes in the Keywords

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“…On an annual basis, mean wind speeds are projected to increase over the entire North Sea region; with the projected changes in mean wind speed typically exceeding 10 %. Despite an overall tendency of increasing mean wind speed in the North Sea region, McInnes et al (2011) identified marked variations between individual models regarding the sign of the change, particularly in the southern North Sea region. In a recent study, Sterl et al (2015) analysed projected change in annual mean wind speeds at 10 m over the southern North Sea region for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios using one GCM.…”

Section: Mean Wind Speedsmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…For extremes of near-surface winds, defined via the 99th percentile of daily mean wind speed, the CMIP3 simulations show an overall slight increase (up to 5 %) in the North Sea region during winter and an overall slight decrease (up to 5 %) during summer (McInnes et al 2011). In this, the projected changes in extreme wind speed are markedly less pronounced than the corresponding changes in mean wind speed when normalised with the climatological values for present-day climate conditions.…”

Section: Wind Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…McInnes et al (2011) analysed future changes in mean wind speeds at 10 m at a global scale on the basis of the CMIP3 simulations based on the SRES A1B scenario and found an increase in mean wind speeds over both the North Sea and the adjacent land areas in winter at the end of the 21st century, while in summer a notable increase was found over the North Sea only. On an annual basis, mean wind speeds are projected to increase over the entire North Sea region; with the projected changes in mean wind speed typically exceeding 10 %.…”

Section: Mean Wind Speedsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected Change—Atmosphere

May

Ganske

Leckebusch

et al. 2016

North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment

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Several aspects describing the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region are considered in this chapter. These include large-scale circulation, means and extremes in temperature and precipitation, cyclones and winds, and radiation and clouds. The climate projections reveal several pronounced future changes in the state of the atmosphere in the North Sea region, both in the free atmosphere and near the surface: amplification and an eastward shift in the pattern of NAO variability in autumn and winter; changes in the storm track with increased cyclone density over western Europe in winter and reduced cyclone density on the southern flank in summer; more frequent strong winds from westerly directions and less frequent strong winds from south-easterly directions; marked mean warming of 1.7-3.2°C for different scenarios, with stronger warming in winter than in summer and a relatively strong warming over southern Norway; more intense extremes in daily maximum temperature and reduced extremes in daily minimum temperature, both in strength and frequency; an increase in mean precipitation during the cold season and a reduction during the warm season; a pronounced increase in the intensity of heavy daily precipitation events, particularly in winter; a considerable increase in the intensity of extreme hourly precipitation in summer; an increase (decrease) in cloud cover in the northern (southern) part of the North Sea region, resulting in a decrease (increase) in net solar radiation at the surface.

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Global Climate Model projected changes in 10 m wind speed and direction due to anthropogenic climate change

Cited by 138 publications

References 22 publications

Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton

Disentangling the mechanisms behind climate effects on zooplankton

Changes in terrestrial near-surface wind speed and their possible causes: an overview

Projected Change—Atmosphere

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