Global climate model and coupled regional climate model simulations over the eastern United States: GENESIS and RegCM2 simulations

Jenkins, G. S.; Barron, Eric J.

doi:10.1016/s0921-8181(96)00011-2

Cited by 35 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 23 publications

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“…No downscaled temperatures were generated, so temperature changes from scenario 1 were used for scenario 2. The use of nesting and downscaling generally increases model skill when compared to the use of the raw GCM output, and these examples are no exception (Jenkins and Barron 1997;Crane and Hewitson 1998). Both models simulate annual mean precipitation well, and both have a summer maximum in precipitation, in agreement with the observations, though the nested model tends to predict too much precipitation during this time.…”

Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 61%

The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate‐induced changes in streamflow

Gibson

Najjar

2000

Limnology & Oceanography

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Autoregressive statistical models of monthly salinity variations in the mainstem of Chesapeake Bay are developed for use in climate change applications. Observations of salinity and Susquehanna River flow from 1984 to 1994 are used to calibrate the models. Up to 93% of the variance in salinity is captured by these models, with the best fits occurring in the middle of the bay, where submonthly fluctuations due to river flow and oceanic currents are damped. Our salinity models use output from a climate-forced hydrological model under a doubling of present-day atmospheric CO 2 . This coupling scheme predicts salinity changes between ϩ3.5% and Ϫ27.5% near the mouth of the Susquehanna River, to between ϩ0.1% and Ϫ0.7% near the ocean. These ranges demonstrate the uncertainty in climate model predictions, although three of the four scenarios used indicate increased Susquehanna River flow and therefore decreased salinity. In the highest flow scenario (a 32% annual increase) our results show that the bay's isohalines may recede by approximately 6.3 km (about 2% of the length of the bay) near the Susquehanna River, to as much as 55 km (about 17% of the length of the bay) near the middle bay. This shift implies that climate change may have consequences for organisms with low-salinity thresholds, including oysters and crabs.

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Section: Climate Change Projectionsmentioning

confidence: 61%

The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate‐induced changes in streamflow

Gibson

Najjar

2000

Limnology & Oceanography

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“…These scenarios and others (i.e. Jenkins & Barron 1997, Crane & Hewitson 1998 suggest that the future climate may be wetter in the MAR. Other factors being equal, this finding means that streamflow and groundwater could provide more water for human and ecosystem use.…”

Section: Uncertainties and Challenges Of Climate Variation And Changementioning

confidence: 73%

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

Neff¹,

Chang²,

Knight³

et al. 2000

Clim. Res.

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The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projections of future streamflow, groundwater, and water quality are made using models determined from these associations and are applied to 2 transient general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. Regional streamflow increases in one scenario, but decreases in the other; both scenarios result in changes in the seasonality of peak flows. Response of groundwater to climate change depends on the GCM scenario used. Canadian Climate Center (CCC) scenarios suggest recharge will occur earlier in the year, and that seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels will be less extreme. Hadley Center scenarios suggest recharge will occur earlier in the medium term, but later in the long term, with seasonal fluctuations in general being more extreme. Both scenarios show that nutrient loads can be expected to increase in winter and spring because of the expected increase in streamflow. Projected decreases in streamflow and associated nutrient fluxes in July and August could ameliorate problems associated with estuarine stratification and eutrophication in late summer. These projections demonstrate that future hydrology and water resources will be influenced by climate change, but that uncertainty in accurately projecting that influence will continue until model scenarios improve.

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“…However, improved predictability of interannual climate variability associated with El Nino-Southern Oscillation now is applied routinely when trying to solve agricultural and environmental problems. Recent advances have been made in regional climate models for the mid-Atlantic (Crane and Hewiston, 1998;Jenkins and Barron, 1996;Najjar, 1999), and these have been applied to predictions of future salinity change in the bay (Gibson and Najjar, 2000). Similar efforts are needed to understand future changes in sediment flux that will result from more frequent extreme climate events and greater interannual variability.…”

Section: Short-term Extreme Eventsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A summary report of sediment processes in Chesapeake Bay and watershed

Langland¹,

Cronin²

2003

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Global climate model and coupled regional climate model simulations over the eastern United States: GENESIS and RegCM2 simulations

Cited by 35 publications

References 23 publications

The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate‐induced changes in streamflow

The response of Chesapeake Bay salinity to climate‐induced changes in streamflow

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

A summary report of sediment processes in Chesapeake Bay and watershed

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