Global climate change below 2 °C avoids large end century increases in burned area in Canada

Abstract

Wildfire impacts the global carbon cycle, property, harvestable timber, and public health. Canada saw a record fire season in 2023 with 14.9 Mha burned—over seven times the 1986–2022 average of 2.1 Mha. Here we utilize a new process-based wildfire module that explicitly represents fire weather, fuel type and availability, ignition sources, fire suppression, and vegetation’s climate response to project the future of wildfire in Canada. Under rapid climate change (shared socioeconomic pathway [SSP] 370 & 585) simulated annual burned area in the 2090 s reaches 10.2 ± 2.1 to 11.7 ± 2.4 Mha, approaching the 2023 fire season total. However, climate change below a 2 °C global target (SSP126), keeps the 2090 s area burned near modern (2004–2014) norms. The simulated area burned and carbon emissions are most sensitive to climate drivers and lightning but future lightning activity is a key uncertainty.