Global Climate Change and Infectious Diseases

Shope, Robert E.

doi:10.2307/3431227

Cited by 25 publications

(22 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…aegypti has been shown to transmit DENV when the temperature is above 20°C but not less than 16°C [34] and a positive correlation has been shown between temperature and the female vector abundance [4]. In addition, high temperatures may increase the frequency of blood feeding due to a rapid reduction in energy reserves in the vectors [34]. It is expected that global warming may facilitate the expanded distribution of DENV vectors in temperate regions like northern parts of North America and Europe [35].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks

et al. 2017

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Dengue is one of the major hurdles to the public health in Sri Lanka, causing high morbidity and mortality. The present study focuses on the use of geographical information systems (GIS) to map and evaluate the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue in Sri Lanka from 2009 to 2014 and to elucidate the association of climatic factors with dengue incidence. Epidemiological, population and meteorological data were collected from the Epidemiology Unit, Department of Census and Statistics and the Department of Meteorology of Sri Lanka. Data were analyzed using SPSS (Version 20, 2011) and R studio (2012) and the maps were generated using Arc GIS 10.2. The dengue incidence showed a significant positive correlation with rainfall (p<0.0001). No positive correlation was observed between dengue incidence and temperature (p = 0.107) or humidity (p = 0.084). Rainfall prior to 2 and 5 months and a rise in the temperature prior to 9 months positively correlated with dengue incidence as based on the auto-correlation values. A rise in humidity prior to 1 month had a mild positive correlation with dengue incidence. However, a rise in humidity prior to 9 months had a significant negative correlation with dengue incidence based on the auto-correlation values. Remote sensing and GIS technologies give near real time utility of climatic data together with the past dengue incidence for the prediction of dengue outbreaks. In that regard, GIS will be applicable in outbreak predictions including prompt identification of locations with dengue incidence and forecasting future risks and thus direct control measures to minimize major outbreaks.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climatic Factors and Population Density on the Distribution of Dengue in Sri Lanka: A GIS Based Evaluation for Prediction of Outbreaks

et al. 2017

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“…Just as WNV emerged in the United States in 1999, other arboviral pathogens may escape control to infect large susceptible populations [7,98-101]. Recent examples include WNV [14] and chikungunya [102,103].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring the burden of arboviral diseases: the spectrum of morbidity and mortality from four prevalent infections

LaBeaud

Bashir²,

King

2011

Popul Health Metrics

194

141

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BackgroundGlobally, arthropod-borne virus infections are increasingly common causes of severe febrile disease that can progress to long-term physical or cognitive impairment or result in early death. Because of the large populations at risk, it has been suggested that these outcomes represent a substantial health deficit not captured by current global disease burden assessments.MethodsWe reviewed newly available data on disease incidence and outcomes to critically evaluate the disease burden (as measured by disability-adjusted life years, or DALYs) caused by yellow fever virus (YFV), Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), chikungunya virus (CHIKV), and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV). We searched available literature and official reports on these viruses combined with the terms "outbreak(s)," "complication(s)," "disability," "quality of life," "DALY," and "QALY," focusing on reports since 2000. We screened 210 published studies, with 38 selected for inclusion. Data on average incidence, duration, age at onset, mortality, and severity of acute and chronic outcomes were used to create DALY estimates for 2005, using the approach of the current Global Burden of Disease framework.ResultsGiven the limitations of available data, nondiscounted, unweighted DALYs attributable to YFV, JEV, CHIKV, and RVFV were estimated to fall between 300,000 and 5,000,000 for 2005. YFV was the most prevalent infection of the four viruses evaluated, although a higher proportion of the world's population lives in countries at risk for CHIKV and JEV. Early mortality and long-term, related chronic conditions provided the largest DALY components for each disease. The better known, short-term viral febrile syndromes caused by these viruses contributed relatively lower proportions of the overall DALY scores.ConclusionsLimitations in health systems in endemic areas undoubtedly lead to underestimation of arbovirus incidence and related complications. However, improving diagnostics and better understanding of the late secondary results of infection now give a first approximation of the current disease burden from these widespread serious infections. Arbovirus control and prevention remains a high priority, both because of the current disease burden and the significant threat of the re-emergence of these viruses among much larger groups of susceptible populations.

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“…Temperature and humidity influence the abundance and distribution of vectors and intermediate hosts 31 32 33. Global warming can reshape vegetation zones34 and can be expected to change the distribution and abundance of vector borne infections, such as malaria.…”

Section: Climatic Effectsmentioning

confidence: 99%