Global Climate Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Patz, Jonathan A.

doi:10.1001/jama.1996.03530270057032

Cited by 529 publications

(326 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…The distribution and emergence of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and cholera, are predicted to be dependent on temperature, humidity, and precipitation (Lipp et al, 2002;Patz et al, 1996Patz et al, , 2005Rogers and Randolph, 2000). As such, climate change is predicted to facilitate the reemergence or expansion of endemic vector-borne diseases or might promote the migration of these diseases to new regions.…”

Section: Increased Vulnerability To Disease Vectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Noyes

McElwee

Miller

et al. 2009

Environment International

921

569

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Climate change induced by anthropogenic warming of the earth's atmosphere is a daunting problem. This review examines one of the consequences of climate change that has only recently attracted attention: namely, the effects of climate change on the environmental distribution and toxicity of chemical pollutants. A review was undertaken of the scientific literature (original research articles, reviews, government and intergovernmental reports) focusing on the interactions of toxicants with the environmental parameters, temperature, precipitation, and salinity, as altered by climate change. Three broad classes of chemical toxicants of global significance were the focus: air pollutants, persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including some organochlorine pesticides, and other classes of pesticides. Generally, increases in temperature will enhance the toxicity of contaminants and increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone regionally, but will also likely increase rates of chemical degradation. While further research is needed, climate change coupled with air pollutant exposures may have potentially serious adverse consequences for human health in urban and polluted regions. Climate change producing alterations in: food webs, lipid dynamics, ice and snow melt, and organic carbon cycling could result in increased POP levels in water, soil, and biota. There is also compelling evidence that increasing temperatures could be deleterious to pollutant-exposed wildlife. For example, elevated water temperatures may alter the biotransformation of contaminants to more bioactive metabolites and impair homeostasis. The complex interactions between climate change and pollutants may be particularly problematic for species living at the edge of their physiological tolerance range where acclimation capacity may be limited. In addition to temperature increases, regional precipitation patterns are projected to be altered with climate change. Regions subject to decreases in precipitation may experience enhanced volatilization of POPs and pesticides to the atmosphere. Reduced precipitation will also increase air pollution in urbanized regions resulting in negative health effects, which may be exacerbated by temperature increases. Regions subject to increased precipitation will have lower levels of air pollution, but will likely experience enhanced surface deposition of airborne POPs and increased run-off of pesticides. Moreover, increases in the intensity and frequency of storm events linked to climate change could lead to more severe episodes of chemical contamination of water bodies and surrounding watersheds. Changes in salinity may affect aquatic organisms as an independent stressor as well as by altering the bioavailability and in some instances increasing the toxicity of chemicals. A paramount issue will be to identify species and populations especially vulnerable to climate-pollutant interactions, in the context of the many other physical, chemical, and biological stressors that will be altered with climate change. Moreover, it w...

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Section: Increased Vulnerability To Disease Vectorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Noyes

McElwee

Miller

et al. 2009

Environment International

921

569

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“…In particular, climate factors can be used in the prediction of habitat type (Holdridge 1971) and thus suitability for arthropods (Rogers, Hay et al 1996;Duchateau, Kruska et al 1997;Robinson, Rogers et al 1997;Cumming 2002). Because climate has a well-documented role in the maintenance of vectors and pathogens in nature, some studies have predicted that the present warming phase of the Earth will result in the redistribution of many vector-borne diseases (Reeves, Hardy et al 1994;Patz, Epstein et al 1996). For instance, warming temperatures have been predicted to both enhance transmission intensity and extend the distribution of diseases such a malaria and dengue (Martens, Niessen et al 1995;Lindsay and Martens 1998;Patz, Martens et al 1998;Hales, de Wet et al 2002;Tanser, Sharp et al 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For instance, warming temperatures have been predicted to both enhance transmission intensity and extend the distribution of diseases such a malaria and dengue (Martens, Niessen et al 1995;Lindsay and Martens 1998;Patz, Martens et al 1998;Hales, de Wet et al 2002;Tanser, Sharp et al 2003). In particular, climate change may open up previously uninhabitable territory for arthropod vectors as well as increase reproductive and biting rates, and shorten the pathogen incubation period (Shope 1991;Patz, Epstein et al 1996). There is therefore an imperative need for further studies on the effect of climate change on a broad range of vectorborne disease systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

2005

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An understanding of the influence of climate change on Ixodes scapularis, the main vector of Lyme disease in North America, is a fundamental component in assessing changes in the spatial distribution of human risk for the disease. We used a climate suitability model of I. scapularis to examine the potential effects of global climate change on future Lyme disease risk in North America. A climatebased logistic model was first used to explain the current distribution of I. scapularis in North America. Climate change scenarios were then applied to extrapolate the model in time and produce forecasts of vector establishment. The spatially modeled relationship between I. scapularis presence and large-scale environmental data generated the current pattern of I. scapularis across North America with an accuracy of 89% (p<0.0001). Extrapolation of the model revealed a significant expansion of I. scapularis north into Canada with an increase in suitable habitat of 213% by the 2080's. Climate change will also result in a retraction of the vector from southern United States, and movement into the central United States. This report predicts the effect of climate change on Lyme disease risk and specifically forecasts the emergence of a tick-borne infectious disease in Canada. Our modeling approach could thus be used to outline where future control strategies and prevention efforts need to be applied.

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“…Our microbial enemies and their vectors are smart and able to develop different strategies for coping with our weapons (Garrett 1994, Anonymous 1994, Wilson et al 1994, Marques 1995, Schwartz & Bryan 1996, LeDuc 1996, Patz et al 1996. We have no choice but to be imaginative, flexible and devoid of prejudices in the selection of the new priorities that will shape our next research agendas.…”

Section: Final Commentsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Chagas disease, from discovery to control - and beyond: history, myths and lessons to take home

Morel

1999

Mem. Inst. Oswaldo Cruz

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Global Climate Change and Emerging Infectious Diseases

Cited by 529 publications

References 105 publications

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

The toxicology of climate change: Environmental contaminants in a warming world

Effect of Climate Change on Lyme Disease Risk in North America

Chagas disease, from discovery to control - and beyond: history, myths and lessons to take home

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