Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection

Chan, Emily H.; Brewer, Timothy F.; Madoff, Lawrence C.; Pollack, Marjorie; Sonricker, Amy L.; Keller, Mikaela; Freifeld, Clark C.; Blench, Michael; Mawudeku, Abla; Brownstein, John S.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1006219107

Cited by 199 publications

(209 citation statements)

References 26 publications

(25 reference statements)

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“…gov/dengue/). Used in combination with traditional case reporting, HealthMap and other electronic surveillance systems have proven value for enhancing the timeliness of outbreak discovery and information dissemination (11). However, these information sources may also provide added value for monitoring ongoing spread.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electronic Event–based Surveillance for Monitoring Dengue, Latin America

Hoen¹,

Keller²,

Verma³

et al. 2012

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electronic Event–based Surveillance for Monitoring Dengue, Latin America

Hoen¹,

Keller²,

Verma³

et al. 2012

Emerg. Infect. Dis.

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“…Compared with earlier generations of scientists, we possess an enormous scientific base, and the acquisition rate is high for new information about pathogens. Over the last 5 decades, numerous viruses responsible for new diseases or old diseases whose etiology is recently identified, have been discovered [2,[7][8][9][10] . To highlight the importance and timeliness of EIDs without focusing only on the AIDS pandemic that killed more than 25 million people over the past 25 years, we should also keep in mind that severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), with 10 000 human cases and slightly less than 1000 deaths, had an estimated overall cost of over $100 billion for the global economy; a possible pandemic of bird flu transmission between humans also challenges the government and health authorities in the world.…”

Section: Factors Favoring the Emergence Or Re-emergence Of Pathogensmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…An integrated global alert and response system for EID and other public health emergencies based on strong national public health systems and capacity, and an effective international system for coordinated response has been set up by the WHO [59] . The rapid expansion in Internet access and utilization has also provided a more open route for reporting that could push local governments toward greater transparency [10] . Additionally, NIAID and others (i.e.…”

Section: World Is Changing Ecosystems Are Changing Biomonitoring Mumentioning

confidence: 99%

Emerging and re-emerging viruses: A global challenge illustrated by Chikungunya virus outbreaks

Devaux¹

2012

WJV

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In recent decades, the issue of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases, especially those related to viruses, has become an increasingly important area of concern in public health. It is of significance to anticipate future epidemics by accumulating knowledge through appropriate research and by monitoring their emergence using indicators from different sources. The objective is to alert and respond effectively in order to reduce the adverse impact on the general populations. Most of the emerging pathogens in humans originate from known zoonosis. These pathogens have been engaged in long-standing and highly successful interactions with their hosts since their origins are exquisitely adapted to host parasitism. They developed strategies aimed at: (1) maximizing invasion rate; (2) selecting host traits that can reduce their impact on host life span and fertility; (3) ensuring timely replication and survival both within host and between hosts; and (4) facilitating reliable transmission to progeny. In this con- Reunion Island in the Indian Ocean, followed by several outbreaks in other parts of the world, such as India and Southern Europe, has attracted the attention of medical and state authorities about the risks linked to this re-emerging mosquito-borne virus. This is an excellent model to illustrate the issues we are facing today and to improve how to respond tomorrow.

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“…The data are generally collected via a network of physicians, and then compiled into reports by public health authorities. Due to many factors, including poorly funded collection efforts, these reports are not timely -in the best case (for example, the United States' Center for Disease Control, CDC), the reports are delayed by 2 weeks; in poorer countries, the delay is much longer [3]. Consequently, one turns to sources of data that may be outside of the clinical domain, but which can be recorded in a more timely manner.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Nowcasting influenza outbreaks using open-source media report.

Ray¹,

Brownstein

2013

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We construct and verify a statistical method to nowcast influenza activity from a time-series of the frequency of reports concerning influenza related topics. Such reports are published electronically by both public health organizations as well as newspapers/media sources, and thus can be harvested easily via web crawlers. Since media reports are timely, whereas reports from public health organization are delayed by at least two weeks, using timely, open-source data to compensate for the lag in "official" reports can be useful. We use morbidity data from networks of sentinel physicians (both the Center of Disease Control's ILINet and France's Sentinelles network) as the gold standard of influenza-like illness (ILI) activity. The time-series of media reports is obtained from HealthMap (http://healthmap.org). We find that the time-series of media reports shows some correlation (≈ 0.5) with ILI activity; further, this can be leveraged into an autoregressive moving average model with exogenous inputs (ARMAX model) to nowcast ILI activity. We find that the ARMAX models have more predictive skill compared to autoregressive (AR) models fitted to ILI data i.e., it is possible to exploit the information content in the open-source data. We also find that when the open-source data are non-informative, the ARMAX models reproduce the performance of AR models. The statistical models are tested on data from the 2009 swine-flu outbreak as well as the mild 2011-2012 influenza season in the U.S.A.

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Global capacity for emerging infectious disease detection

Abstract: The increasing number of emerging infectious disease events that have spread internationally, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)

Cited by 199 publications

References 26 publications

Electronic Event–based Surveillance for Monitoring Dengue, Latin America

Electronic Event–based Surveillance for Monitoring Dengue, Latin America

Emerging and re-emerging viruses: A global challenge illustrated by Chikungunya virus outbreaks

Nowcasting influenza outbreaks using open-source media report.

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