Global Calibration of Distributed Hydrological Models for Large-Scale Applications

Ricard, Simon; Bourdillon, Rémy; Roussel, David; Turcotte, Richard

doi:10.1061/(asce)he.1943-5584.0000665

Cited by 28 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…The global calibration strategy, in which a number of sub-basins containing all land classes are calibrated simultaneously, generates preferred results over the strategy in which a single sub-basin with a specific land type is calibrated individually. This result is consistent with the findings of Ricard et al (2013) who calibrated a semi-distributed model in the St. Lawrence River basin, Quebec, Canada. Insufficient definition of GRUs based solely on land cover types can also affect the prediction results negatively when parameters are transferred to other sub-basins.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

“…In the global strategy, all parameters for all GRUs (land class types) are calibrated simultaneously considering all calibration sub-basins and then validated in space and time for other flow gauges. Ricard, Bourdillon, Roussel, and Turcotte (2013) suggested a similar strategy for calibrating a semi-distributed model at a large scale over the St. Lawrence River basin in Quebec, Canada. In the second strategy, hereafter called the "individual strategy," parameters associated with a certain GRU type (land class) are calibrated to a single sub-basin dominated by that GRU and then validated for another sub-basin with the same dominant GRU.…”

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Calibrating Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System over the Great Lakes Basin

et al. 2014

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This paper reports on recent progress towards improved predictions of a land surface-hydrological modelling system, Modélisation Environmentale-Surface et Hydrologie (MESH), via its calibration over the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin. Accordingly, a "global" calibration strategy is utilized in which parameters for all land class types are calibrated simultaneously to a number of sub-basins and then validated in time and space. Model performance was evaluated based on four performance metrics, including the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficient and simulated compared with observed hydrographs. Results from two calibration approaches indicate that in the model validation mode, the global strategy generates better results than an alternative calibration strategy, referred to as the "individual" strategy, in which parameters are calibrated individually to a single sub-basin with a dominant land type and then validated in a different sub-basin with the same dominant land type. The global calibration strategy was relatively successful despite the large number of calibration parameters (51) and relatively small number of model evaluations (1000) used in the automatic calibration procedure. The NS values for spatial validation range from 0.10 to 0.72 with a median of 0.41 for the 15 sub-basins considered. Results also confirm that a careful model calibration and validation is needed before any application of the model. RÉSUMÉ [Traduit par la rédaction] Cet article présente les progrès récents vers des prévisions améliorées d'un système de modélisation hydrologique et de la surface du sol, le MESH (Modélisation environnementale-surface et hydrologie) par le biais de son étalonnage dans le bassin des Grands Lacs laurentiens. À cette fin, nous utilisons une stratégie d'étalonnage « d'ensemble » dans laquelle les paramètres pour tous les types de catégories de sol sont étalonnés simultanément pour un certain nombre de sous-bassins et validés dans le temps et dans l'espace. Nous avons évalué la performance du modèle d'après quatre mesures de performance, y compris le coefficient de Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), et comparé les simulations aux hydrogrammes observés. Les résultats de deux méthodes d'étalonnage indiquent que dans le mode de validation du modèle, la stratégie d'ensemble produit de meilleurs résultats qu'une autre stratégie d'étalonnage, désignée sous le nom de « stratégie individuelle », dans laquelle les paramètres sont étalonnés individuellement pour un sous-bassin unique avec une catégorie de sol dominante puis validés dans un sous-bassin différent avec la même catégorie de sol dominante. La stratégie d'étalonnage d'ensemble s'est avérée assez efficace malgré le grand nombre de paramètres d'étalonnage (51) et le petit nombre d'évaluations du modèle (1000) utilisées dans la procédure d'étalonnage automatique. Les valeurs NS pour la validation spatiale vont de 0,10 à 0,72 avec une médiane de 0,41 pour les 15 sous-bassins considérés. Les résultats confirment aussi qu'un étalonnage et une validation minutieux du modèle sont nécessa...

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

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confidence: 99%

Calibrating Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System over the Great Lakes Basin

et al. 2014

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“…Indeed, the study 566 focused on identifying the main governing indices of low flows while building on the 567 assumption that physical links between HDIs and CDIs remained time invariant (between 568 past and future horizons). As such, this approach may be viewed as the temporal equivalent 569 of the global calibration strategy of distributed hydrological models (Ricard et al, 2013). It 570 was notably used in CEHQ (2013b, 2015) to ensure the spatial consistency of the calibration 571 parameter sets in large-scale hydrological modeling applications.…”

Section: Governing Low Flowsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

Foulon

Rousseau

Gagnon

2018

Journal of Hydrology

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1Low flow conditions are governed by short-to-medium term weather conditions or long term 2 climate conditions. This prompts the question: given climate scenarios, is it possible to 3 assess future extreme low flow conditions from climate data indices (CDIs)? Or should we 4 rely on the conventional approach of using outputs of climate models as inputs to a 5 hydrological model? Several CDIs were computed using 42 climate scenarios over the years 6 1961 to 2100 for two watersheds located in Québec, Canada. The relationship between the 7 CDIs and hydrological data indices (HDIs; 7-and 30-day low flows for two hydrological 8 seasons) were examined through correlation analysis to identify the indices governing low 9 flows. Results of the Mann-Kendall test, with a modification for autocorrelated data, clearly 10 identified trends. A partial correlation analysis allowed attributing the observed trends in HDIs 11 to trends in specific CDIs. Furthermore, results showed that, even during the spatial 12 validation process, the methodological framework was able to assess trends in low flow 13 series from: (i) trends in the effective drought index (EDI) computed from rainfall plus 14 snowmelt minus PET amounts over ten to twelve months of the hydrological snow cover 15 season or (ii) the cumulative difference between rainfall and potential evapotranspiration over 16 five months of the snow free season. For 80% of the climate scenarios, trends in HDIs were 17 successfully attributed to trends in CDIs. Overall, this paper introduces an efficient 18 methodological framework to assess future trends in low flows given climate scenarios. The 19 outcome may prove useful to municipalities concerned with source water management under 20 changing climate conditions. 21 22 Keywords: 23 effective drought index; 7-day low flow; 30-day low flow; HYDROTEL; trends; climate model 24 for the 2001-2100 period, (ii) uncertainty of the climate change signal was addressed through 78 the use of 42 climate simulations, and (iii) future flows were simulated using a distributed 79 hydrological model. 80 Materials and methods 81The organization and mapping of the Materials and methods and Results sections are 82 introduced in Figure 1. Throughout the paper, and in accordance with CEHQ (2013a); IPCC 83 (2013), "simulation" or "climate simulation" refers to the raw climate model outputs. 84 "Scenario" or "climate scenario" refers to a post-processed simulation, which is a simulation 85 for which a series of specific choices have been made (study region and period, spatial and 86 temporal resolutions, bias-correction method). White boxes present how the climate 87 scenarios were obtained from 42 different bias-corrected climate simulations. Grey boxes 88 introduce the methodological framework proposed in this paper. It required computing CDIs 89 from climate data extracted from the aforementioned climate scenarios and HDIs from 90 simulated streamflows using a calibrated hydrological model. Afterwards, the statistical 91 relationships between CDIs and HD...

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“…Next to the PUB's achievements, other alternative approaches were developed to overcome the challenge of overparameterization and equifinality of spatially distributed models. For example, Ricard et al (2013) introduced a global calibration procedure for large-scale spatially distributed models to preserve spatial 10.1029/2018WR023566…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially Distributed Conceptual Hydrological Model Building: A Generic Top‐Down Approach Starting From Lumped Models

Tran

Niel

Willems

2018

Water Resources Research

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Changing environmental conditions might have severe impacts on future flood frequencies and water availability. In order to develop mitigation strategies by carrying out impact studies, lumped hydrological models might not suffice anymore and the need for flexibility in spatial resolution arises. Recent developments already allow to change the grid size of hydrological models depending on the needs and to use different spatial resolutions in parallel for different applications. These developments, however, still face some challenges such as the following: how to avoid strong or sudden changes in simulation results when level of spatial details is changed and how to limit the problem of overparameterization/equifinality while increasing the spatial resolution. We developed a methodology to partially meet these challenges by building parsimonious distributed conceptual hydrological models with a flexible spatial resolution. The methodology starts with calibrated lumped conceptual models. Parameters are then spatially disaggregated based on spatially variable catchment properties, introducing only few additional calibration parameters. The approach is demonstrated for three different conceptual rainfall‐runoff models for two medium‐sized Belgian catchments. The resulting spatial models are found to be accurate with respect to the observations and consistent with the lumped conceptual model results, when evaluated for peak, low, and cumulative total runoff and subflows at downstream and internal gauging stations. A climate change impact analysis further shows consistency of lumped and spatial model results for changing conditions.

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Global Calibration of Distributed Hydrological Models for Large-Scale Applications

Cited by 28 publications

References 15 publications

Calibrating Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System over the Great Lakes Basin

Calibrating Environment Canada's MESH Modelling System over the Great Lakes Basin

Development of a methodology to assess future trends in low flows at the watershed scale using solely climate data

Spatially Distributed Conceptual Hydrological Model Building: A Generic Top‐Down Approach Starting From Lumped Models

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