Global and regional trends of the century+ in the Middle East: A new interpretation

Abstract

The study focuses on a set of issues related to the assessment of key trends in the development of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), which has been raised in the research published by Russian academicians V.G. Baranovskii and V.V. Naumkin in 2018. The aim of this paper is to reexamine their estimates and forecasts in the light of recent developments and on this basis to take a fresh look at the future of the MENA region. To that end, the first section of the paper revisits the main findings of the 2018 research. It shows which of the global and regional trends outlined there have retained their relevance under modern conditions, and which ones need serious reappraisal. In particular, the authors note that the trend towards the universalization of regional political systems stemmed from their overall modernization is being increasingly counterbalanced by the revival of archaic socio-political practices. The recent developments in the region have had an even greater impact on the process of democratization and the globalization-regionalization dichotomy. The authors argue that these changes were not completely unforeseen; on the contrary, they were anticipated if one looks at them through the lens of neo-modernism. The second section analyzes current trends in regional development. It shows that though the most acute regional conflicts in the MENA region are gradually de-escalating, centrifugal tendencies are becoming more evident, as heterogeneity of political systems and regimes increases. In this context, the discourses of decolonization and neocolonialism, as well as symbolic politics in general, are gaining a whole new meaning.