Global and Regional Causes of Death: Patterns and Trends, 2000–15

Mathers, Colin; Stevens, Gonneke W. J. M.; Hogan, Dan; Mahanani, Wahyu Retno; Ho, Jessica Y.

doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-0527-1_ch4

Cited by 52 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…The model’s calculations start with a baseline age distribution of deaths by age and (broad) cause generated from the UNPD’s projected age distribution of population and age in 2030 combined with cause-specific mortality from 2015. 54 It then estimates the effect of EUHC (and HPP) on mortality by assuming that the underlying intervention packages are implemented in the 15 years from 2015 to 2030 (the packages were designed to make this assumption reasonable). The age-specific and cause-specific mortality from counterfactual 2015 are then applied to the UNPD 2030 age distributions to give the age distributions of death by cause estimated to result from implementation of EUHC.…”

Section: Essential Universal Health Coveragementioning

confidence: 99%

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

et al. 2018

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The World Bank is publishing nine volumes of Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition (DCP3) between 2015 and 2018. Volume 9, Improving Health and Reducing Poverty, summarises the main messages from all the volumes and contains cross-cutting analyses. This Review draws on all nine volumes to convey conclusions. The analysis in DCP3 is built around 21 essential packages that were developed in the nine volumes. Each essential package addresses the concerns of a major professional community (eg, child health or surgery) and contains a mix of intersectoral policies and health-sector interventions. 71 intersectoral prevention policies were identified in total, 29 of which are priorities for early introduction. Interventions within the health sector were grouped onto five platforms (population based, community level, health centre, first-level hospital, and referral hospital). DCP3 defines a model concept of essential universal health coverage (EUHC) with 218 interventions that provides a starting point for country-specific analysis of priorities. Assuming steady-state implementation by 2030, EUHC in lower-middle-income countries would reduce premature deaths by an estimated 4·2 million per year. Estimated total costs prove substantial: about 9·1% of (current) gross national income (GNI) in low-income countries and 5·2% of GNI in lower-middle-income countries. Financing provision of continuing intervention against chronic conditions accounts for about half of estimated incremental costs. For lower-middle-income countries, the mortality reduction from implementing the EUHC can only reach about half the mortality reduction in non-communicable diseases called for by the Sustainable Development Goals. Full achievement will require increased investment or sustained intersectoral action, and actions by finance ministries to tax smoking and polluting emissions and to reduce or eliminate (often large) subsidies on fossil fuels appear of central importance. DCP3 is intended to be a model starting point for analyses at the country level, but country-specific cost structures, epidemiological needs, and national priorities will generally lead to definitions of EUHC that differ from country to country and from the model in this Review. DCP3 is particularly relevant as achievement of EUHC relies increasingly on greater domestic finance, with global developmental assistance in health focusing more on global public goods. In addition to assessing effects on mortality, DCP3 looked at outcomes of EUHC not encompassed by the disability-adjusted life-year metric and related cost-effectiveness analyses. The other objectives included financial protection (potentially better provided upstream by keeping people out of the hospital rather than downstream by paying their hospital bills for them), stillbirths averted, palliative care, contraception, and child physical and intellectual growth. The first 1000 days after conception are highly important for child development, but the next 7000 days are likewise important and often neglected.

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Section: Essential Universal Health Coveragementioning

confidence: 99%

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

et al. 2018

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“…Thus, the significant decrease in MAP after the forest recreation program indicates that this activity might be useful in the prevention of many health issues, such as cardiac events. This is important for public health, because cardiac events are one of the most important causes of death worldwide [47], and doing any activity that can lower indices positively linked with cardiac events could be extremely important for the health of each individual. The lowering of SBP indicates the influence of the forest recreation intervention on autonomic nerve system activity [5,48], and thus it may be concluded that the tested intervention did have an influence on this system.…”

Section: Blood Pressurementioning

confidence: 99%

The Effects of a Short Forest Recreation Program on Physiological and Psychological Relaxation in Young Polish Adults

Bielinis

Krupińska-Szeluga

et al. 2019

Forests

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Forest recreation is an activity that could be successfully used to alleviate negative symptoms of stress in individuals. Multiple positive psychological and physiological effects have been described in the literature, especially regarding works describing research from Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and Taiwan. In East-Central Europe, however, the effectuality of forest recreation has not been addressed in scientific research. Thus, a special recreation program was developed, and its usability was examined with the involvement of 21 young Polish adults. A pre- and post-test design was used, wherein four psychological questionnaires were applied (Profile of Mood States, Positive and Negative Affect Schedule, Restorative Outcomes Scale, Subjective Vitality Scale), and physiological measures were assessed (pulse rate, blood pressure) before and after the program. A field study was also conducted at the nature reserve Redykajny, near the suburban forest of the city of Olsztyn. The recreational program had a significant impact on psychological and physiological parameters. After recreation, the negative mood markers of the negative affect decreased and the positive affect, including restoration and vitality, increased. Furthermore, pulse rates, systolic blood pressures, and mean arterial pressures of the participants were significantly lower after the program. These results reveal that the short forest recreation program may be effective in reducing negative symptoms of stress.

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“…Recent publications (e.g. GBD study, 2018a;2018b;2018c;Mathers et al, 2018;WHO, 2019) have addressed this problem in one of two ways: (i) by presenting data for all classifications but for only one or two selected years and/or locations, or; (ii) by presenting trends over many years but only for selected causes, or very broad definitions of causes (e.g. CMNN diseases, NCDs, injuries).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Relative Importance and Stability of Disease Burden Causes Over Time: Summarising Regional Trends on Disease Burden for 290 Causes Over 28 Years

Dyson

Gestel

Doorslaer

2020

Preprint

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Background Since the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) has become more comprehensive, data for hundreds of causes of disease burden, measured using Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), have become increasingly available for almost every part of the world. However, undergoing any systematic comparative analysis of the trends can be challenging given the quantity of data that must be presented.Methods We use the GBD data to describe trends in cause-specific DALY rates for eight regions. We quantify the extent to which the importance of ‘major’ DALY causes changes relative to ‘minor’ DALY causes over time by decomposing changes in the Gini coefficient into ‘proportionality’ and ‘reranking’ indices.Results The fall in regional DALY rates since 1990 has been accompanied by generally positive proportionality indices and reranking indices of negligible magnitude. However, the rate at which DALY rates have been falling has slowed and, at the same time, proportionality indices have tended towards zero. These findings are clearest where the focus is exclusively upon non-communicable diseases. Notably, large and positive proportionality indices are recorded for sub-Saharan Africa over the last decade. Conclusion The positive proportionality indices show that disease burden has become less concentrated around the leading causes over time, and this trend has become less prominent as the DALY rate decline has slowed. The recent decline in disease burden in sub-Saharan Africa is disproportionally driven by improvements in DALY rates for HIV/AIDS, as well as for malaria, diarrheal diseases, and lower respiratory infections.

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Global and Regional Causes of Death: Patterns and Trends, 2000–15

Cited by 52 publications

References 9 publications

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

Universal health coverage and intersectoral action for health: key messages from Disease Control Priorities, 3rd edition

The Effects of a Short Forest Recreation Program on Physiological and Psychological Relaxation in Young Polish Adults

The Relative Importance and Stability of Disease Burden Causes Over Time: Summarising Regional Trends on Disease Burden for 290 Causes Over 28 Years

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