Global Analysis of Changes in Water Supply Yields and Costs under Climate Change: A Case Study in China

Abstract

Using China as a case study, a methodology is presented to estimate the changes in yields and costs of present and future water production systems under climate change scenarios. Yield is important to consider because it measures the actual supply available from a river basin. Costs are incurred in enhancing the natural yield of river basins by the construction and operation of reservoirs and ground water pumping systems. The interaction of ground and surface waters within a river basin and instream flow maintenance are also modeled. The water demands considered are domestic, irrigation, and instream flow needs. We found that under climate change the maximum yields of some basins in China may increase or decrease, depending upon location, and that in some basins it may cost significantly more or it may not be possible to meet the demands. While our results for China could be improved with more hydrologic and economic data, we believe that the cost curves developed have suitable accuracy for initial analysis of water supply costs in Integrated Assessment Models.

Impacts of climate change on Chinese ecosystems: key vulnerable regions and potential thresholds

“…This will likely cause environmental problems such as coastal erosion, severe reduction of agricultural production and water shortages (Chen 1997;Chen and Zong 1999;Wu et al 2003). Climate change and associated soil degradation will modify water resource in China (Kirshen et al 2005;Tao et al 2005;Piao et al 2010), especially in the semi-arid regions of northern, northeastern, and in central, western, and southwestern China, which would become more vulnerable to disastrous drought and floods.…”

Costes de adaptación a los impactos del cambio climático en sistemas hídricos: Estimaciones existentes y retos para la investigación

“…Total costs are actually not reported in the available reference. Kirshen et al (2005) use generalized costs functions for obtaining the unit costs of water storage to estimate the costs of additional storage and groundwater development necessary to maintain water supply yields in the Huang Ho River Basin in China, reaching an estimate of $ 0.5 billion per year up to 2050. Muller (2007) and the more recent Gosh et al (2011) use very simple approach based on unit costs of existing infrastructures and programs applied to 'rule of thumb' (non-simulated) predictions of water supply needs and river flooding in India in the case of Gosh et al (2011).…”

Temporal and spatial variations of precipitation in the Jinsha River basin during 1961–2010

“…With the development of the population and the social economy, the frequent floods and droughts, the contradiction of water resources supply and demand are becoming important factors restricting the development of the national economy (Kirshen et al, 2005;Wang et al, 2012).…”

“…The temporal and spatial changes of precipitation will cause changes of the hydrological processes in the Jinsha River basin, and have big impacts on utilization of water resources and hydropower (Kirshen et al, 2005). Analysis of the variations of precipitation in the Jinsha River basin, is very important for understanding the impacts of climate change on runoff and sediment yield, and can provide supportive information for integrated utilization of water resources (Du et al, 2013).…”