Glacier Forecast: Jakobshavn Isbrae Primed for Thinning and Acceleration

Abstract

After three years of cold conditions, warm water has returned to Ilulissat Icefjord, home to Jakobshavn Isbrae—Greenland’s largest outlet glacier. Jakobshavn has slowed and thickened since 2016, when waters near the glacier cooled from 3 °C to 1.5 °C. Fjord temperatures remained cold through at least the end of 2019, but in March 2020, temperatures in the fjord warmed to 2.8 °C. As a result of the warming, we forecast that Jakobshavn Isbrae will accelerate and resume thinning during the 2020 melt season. The fjord’s profound influence on glacier behavior, and the connectivity between fjord conditions and regional ocean climate imply a degree of predictability that we aim to test with this forecast. Given the global importance of sea-level rise, we must advance our ability to forecast such rapidly changing systems, and this work represents an important first step in glacier forecasting.

Analysis of the Velocity Changes of the Jakobshavn Glacier Based on SAR Imagery

“…The results of this research for 2021 indicate that the Jakobshavn glacier started to accelerate again, and 2019 was probably the turning point. Moreover, in summer 2021, the calculated maximum velocity reached 39.0 m d −1 , which is in agreement with a prediction from 2020 (Willis et al 2020). The expected value of ice velocity was 14.4 km a −1 , which corresponds to approx.…”