Glacier changes in the Tien Shan as determined from topographic and remotely sensed data

Aizen, Vladimir; Kuzmichenok, Valeriy A.; Surazakov, A. B.; Aizen, Elena M.

doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.016

Cited by 148 publications

(125 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…For example, consider the 28% reduction in glacial coverage observed for the period 1963-2000 in the Sokoluk watershed of the northern Tianshan in Kyrgyzstan, which involved a clear acceleration of wastage since the 1980s [36]. Another two examples from the northern and central Tianshan, are the glacial regions of Akshiirak and Ala Archa; from 1943 to 2003, they shrank by 12.8% and 15.8%, respectively, as a result of the significant increase in summer air temperatures [37]. In contrast, Bolch [38] suggested that glacier retreat in Zailiyskiy and Kungey Alatau in northern Tianshan was linked to increased air temperatures in autumn and winter.…”

Section: Regional Differencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in eastern Xinjiang

Gao

et al. 2011

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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The eastern Xinjiang Basin is desperately short of water. Most rivers in the basin originate in the high eastern Tianshan, which has abundant precipitation and numerous alpine glaciers. Fieldwork conducted on three reference glaciers around Mt. Bogda in 1981 and suggests that they all strongly melt in summer, a process that has tended to accelerate in recent decades. Based on topographic maps from 1962 and 1972 and 2005/2006 . South-facing glaciers lost more of their area than those that are north facing, yielding an areal loss of 25.3% and 16.9% for southern and northern slopes of Mt. Bogda, respectively, and 12.3% and 6.6% for the comparable slopes of Mt. Harlik. Glaciers smaller than 0.5 km 2 in area experienced the strongest retreat, whereas glaciers larger than 2 km 2 in area experienced gentle recession but may be the main contributors in the future to river runoff. Glacial ablation in eastern Xinjiang tends to be strong, and the water resources in this region are deteriorating. Also, a heavy reduction in the capacity of the local karez system, as well as a significant change in river runoff, can be related to glacial retreat. Combined, this will adversely affect the downstream city of Urumqi and the Turfan Basin. Climate change is of great concern the world over, particularly regarding the effect of humanity on the existing environment and vice versa. Under continued warming over the last several decades, alpine glacier retreat has accelerated. Surface melting has occurred even on high-altitude glaciers [1]. Moreover, about 75% of the fresh water of the world comes from glaciers [2], thus retreating glaciers will have a strong influence on the regional hydrologic balance and economic sustainability. Climate warming, regardless of whether it is caused by anthropogenic factors or by nature, has led to strong global glacier recession. In fact, changes in alpine glaciers are one of the best natural indicators of climate change because a small change in climatic parameters will result in pronounced geometric changes in glacier shape and size. Many studies show that strong glacial wastage has been the major trend [3,4] over the period from 1993 to 2003 during which time sea level has risen about 0.77 ± 0.18 mm as a result, primarily, of that glacier melting [5]. Using two climate models, sea level is estimated to rise 0.046 m and 0.051 m as a result of mountain glaciers and ice caps melting by 2100 [6]. The estimate of China's potential contribution to cryospheric change is a sea level rise of 0.14-0.16 mm a 1 , of which the contribution of meltwaters from glaciers is assessed at about 0.12 mm a 1 [7]. The problems associated with strong mountain glacier melt are glacial hazards such as glacial lake outburst floods and

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Section: Regional Differencesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in eastern Xinjiang

Gao

et al. 2011

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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“…The nine mountain ranges of the Tibetan Plateau have a total of 36,734 glaciers and constitute the main alpine glacier area in the world (Liu et al, 2015). Many scientists have analyzed the relationship between climate change and glacier retreat based on topographic and remote sensing data (Aizen et al, 2007;Kutuzov and Shahgedanova, 2009;Wang et al, 2011). There has been a marked decrease in the area of alpine glaciers over the past 40 years (Bolch, 2007;Kong and Pang, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Changes in inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years

et al. 2016

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Inland lakes and alpine glaciers are important water resources on the Tibetan Plateau. Understanding their variation is crucial for accurate evaluation and prediction of changes in water supply and for retrieval and analysis of climatic information. Data from previous research on 35 alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were used to investigate changes in lake water level and area. In terms of temporal changes, the area of the 35 alpine lakes could be divided into five groups: rising, falling-rising, rising-falling, fluctuating, and falling. In terms of spatial changes, the area of alpine lakes in the Himalayan Mountains, the Karakoram Mountains, and the Qaidam Basin tended to decrease; the area of lakes in the Naqu region and the Kunlun Mountains increased; and the area of lakes in the Hoh Xil region and Qilian Mountains fluctuated. Changes in lake water level and area were correlated with regional changes in climate. Reasons for changes in these lakes on the Tibetan Plateau were analyzed, including precipitation and evaporation from meteorological data, glacier meltwater from the Chinese glacier inventories. Several key problems, e.g. challenges of monitoring water balance, limitations to glacial area detection, uncertainties in detecting lake water-level variations and variable region boundaries of lake change types on the Tibetan Plateau were discussed. This research has most indicative significance to regional climate change.

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“…Glaciers in the Tien Shan and the Pamir continue to retreat and to shrink (Khromova et al, 2006;. Several studies based on remote sensing have shown that glacier recession in Central Asia was accelerated during the past decades, especially those at the outer ranges of the mountain systems (Liu et al, 2006;Aizen et al, 2007;Bolch, 2007;Narama et al, 2009). For the water cycle of the Central Asian mountains, glacier retreat will still be of crucial importance during the next century.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

Gan

Luo

Zuo

et al. 2015

Journal of Hydrology

103

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Keywords:SWAT model Latest ensemble of climate models Climate change Glacier Hydrology s u m m a r y Climate change is a major environmental concern and the melting processes of the glaciers and snowpacks are sensitive to climate change. The ultimate effect of the future changes on the glacier and hydrology is unclear and poorly investigated for Central Asia. Here, we use results from the latest ensemble of climate models in combination with a glacier-enhanced Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model to assess the hydrological impact of climate change in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia. Results indicate that small glaciers suffer from larger relative area losses than large glaciers. Only 8% of the originally glaciated area for small glaciers will retain glaciers by 2100 for RCP8.5. The rate of area retreat for small glaciers (with an area <1 km 2 ) will slow down for the period 2066-2095, while the glacier area shrinkage is projected to accelerate for large glaciers throughout the twenty-first century. In all cases, glaciers will recede but net glacier melt runoff will reach peak in about 2040. Decreases in future runoff are projected in combination with a negative change in precipitation, snowmelt and higher evapotranspiration. Glacier melt is mainly derived by future temperature changes, while the runoff and snowmelt component are determined by future precipitation. The timing of peak runoff is advancing about one month as a result of earlier snowmelt due to the warming temperature. Runoff is projected to increase during the spring and decrease for the summer season for the future periods. Thus water availability on the time will likely undergo significant changes.

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Glacier changes in the Tien Shan as determined from topographic and remotely sensed data

Cited by 148 publications

References 9 publications

Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in eastern Xinjiang

Recent glacial retreat and its effect on water resources in eastern Xinjiang

Changes in inland lakes on the Tibetan Plateau over the past 40 years

Effects of projected climate change on the glacier and runoff generation in the Naryn River Basin, Central Asia

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