Glacier change and glacier runoff variation in the Himalayan Baspa river basin

Muñoz-Arriola

2021

Hydrology

Self Cite

The present work proposes to improve estimates of snowpack and snowmelt and their assessment in the steep Himalayan ranges at the sub-catchment scale. Temporal variability of streamflow and the associated distribution of accumulated snow in catchments with glacier presence in the Himalayas illustrates how changes in snowpack and snowmelt can affect the water supply for local water management. The primary objective of this study is to assess the role of elevation, temperature lapse rate (TLR), and precipitation lapse rate (PLR) in the computation of snowpack (or snowfall) and snowmelt in sub-catchments of the Satluj River basin. Modeling of snowpack and snowmelt was constructed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in both historical (1991–2008) and near-time scenarios (2011–2030) by implementing real-time hydrometeorological, snow-hydrological parameters, and Global Circulation Model (GCM) datasets. The modeled snowmelt-induced streamflow showed a good agreement with the observed streamflow (~60%), calibrated and validated at three gauges. A Sequential Uncertainty Parameter Fitting (SUFI2) method (SUFI2) resulted that the curve number (CN2) was found to be significantly sensitive during calibration. The snowmelt hydrological parameters such as snowmelt factor maximum (SMFMX) and snow coverage (SNO50COV) significantly affected objective functions, such as R2 and NSE, during the model optimization. For the validation of snowpack and snowmelt, the results have been contrasted with previous studies and found comparable. The computed snowpack and snowmelt were found highly variable over the Himalayan sub-catchments, as also reported by previous researchers. The magnitude of snowpack change consistently decreases across all the sub-catchments of the Satluj river catchment (varying between 4% and 42%). The highest percentage of changes in the snowpack was observed over high-elevation sub-catchments.

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 70%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Improvements in Sub-Catchment Fractional Snowpack and Snowmelt Parameterizations and Hydrologic Modeling for Climate Change Assessments in the Western Himalayas

Muñoz-Arriola

2021

Hydrology

Self Cite

“…A very few studies analyzed that the supply and demand of water in the Himalayan basin is affected by the effects of climate changes on glacier dynamics (Singh et al, 2021b;Singh et al, 2019a;NRCNA 2012). analysed temperature and precipitation in Tista river catchment in India with CMIP5 climate model datasets and observed that there were substantial variations in streamflow and precipitation in terms of their rates, intensities and frequencies in observed as well as future periods.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…(Pradhanang et al, 2011). The rising of atmospheric temperature is the leading cause of the declining the quantity of snowfall in the Himalayan regions which further result in the rapid melting of snow-glaciers and reduces the snow cover durations (Singh et al, 2021a(Singh et al, , 2021bSingh and Bengtson, 2004). The reduction of the snow-to-rain ratio causes wetter monsoon and drier lean flow seasons which has a very adverse effect on the runoff river type hydropower potential of the mountain rivers (Singh et al, 2021b;Agrawala et al, 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Historical and Future Water Availability in Himalayan Tamor River Basin Nepal Utilizing CMIP5 CNRM Climate Model Experiments

Pokhral

Mishra

et al. 2021

Preprint

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In this study, the assessment of water availability under climate changing environment has been done in the Himalayan Tamor River Basin, Nepal using physically based, spatially distributed, a continuous model 'Soil and Water Assessment Tool' (SWAT). The hydrological simulation and projection have been performed in the historical (1996-2007) and future times (e.g. 30s, 40s, 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s). The climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of Tamor river basin has been performed utilizing the CMIP5 CNRM climate model datasets (with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The model calibration and parameterization uncertainty evaluation in the simulated and projected flows were done in SWATCUP using SUFI2 algorithm. The results obtained from the model calibration (1996-2004) and validation (2005-2007) showed a reliable estimate of daily streamflow for calibration period (R2 = 0.85, NSE =0.85 and PBIAS=-2.5) and validation period (R2 =0.87, NSE =0.85 and PBIAS=-5.4). The average annual water yield at the main outlet of the basin is computed as 1511.13 mm, and the total annual quantity is recorded as 6.25 BCM. The average annual precipitation over the seleced river basin is projected to be increased in all scenarios. The stations at higher altitude show more temperature rise than those at a lower elevation and thus there would be minimal snowfall has been projected in the basin by 2100 AD under both scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). It is expected that the flow pattern in the future would be similar to the baseline pattern under all scenarios. The baseflow will be dramatically increased in all scenarios, but the lowest flow month would be shifted from March to February. Since the base flow during lean months would be increased in future as projected by all scenarios, there would not be adverse impacts on higher percentile flows. This study would be useful for the assessment of the possibility of storage type or run-off-river type hydro-project in the basin in terms of water availability.

Glacier changes and their impacts on the melt runoff in high and moderate elevation ranges of Himalayan Upper Ganges Basin

Jain

Nagale

et al. 2023

Hydrological Processes

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The rise in temperatures over the Himalayan regions due to climate change have shown profound effects on the seasonality and long-term availability of snow melt runoff and glacier melt runoff. As per the sixth assessment report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Himalayan glaciers are retreating and the fraction of precipitation falling as snow is altering. This study analyses the effect of snow-glacier changes on the melt runoff (1986-2020) over the Upper Ganga river basin (up to Rishikesh) using a fully distributed model namely, Spatial Process in Hydrology (SPHY), which governs by Temperature Index Model approach with varying degree-day factors. This study performs the two-step calibration approach for model parameterization and to evaluate the snow and glacier melt runoff utilizing the observed discharge and real time satellite datasets. The SPHY derived snow cover was compared with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived snow covers. Results show that the SPHY modelled fractional snow covers found comparable to MODIS derived snow covers ($70%-90% correlation). The R 2 based comparison of SPHY modelled runoff (Q) and observed Q at two gauges namely, Maneri ($0.85) and Rishikesh ($0.80) found reasonable. For the assessment of glacier changes and corresponding melt runoff, temporal glacier maps (i.e., for