GIS Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Saffron Water Requirement (the case of Ardabil Province)

Abstract

In recent decades, climate change in Iran has led to the introduction of specific plants that have less water requirement than policymakers. Saffron cultivation has a long history in Iran and saffron was ranked as one of these figures on the agenda of policymakers. Here we presented the evaluation of Climate Change Impact on Saffron Water Requirement by GIS Modeling in Ardabil Provincel. We spot periods 1992-2017 and 2017-2040 as base and future period, respectively. For CCCSN, the data from five global climate models (GCMs) from the CGCM3T47 archive were selected that cover three 'Representative Concentration Pathways' (RCPs) scenarios. Potential evapotranspiration is estimated by Torrent White method. The accuracy of models at base period was determined by evaluation criteria, such as the RMSE, R2. Results showed that accuracy of CGCM3T47 model on A1B scenario was higher than other AOGCM models which used on base term. Also, it illustrated that water requirement will rise in all capable regions of state on 2040. In universal, average of addition of water requirement is 67, where in Germi, capital of state, we will have maximum variations by 95 mm ascension for the year 2040. Also, pole of production saffron in state, Bilasvar will have 40 mm ascension in saffron water requirement. Mean water requirement of saffron will be constantly increasing. In the meanwhile, the index of 425.52 mm for the year 2017 to 487.61 mm for the year 2040 were performed. Keywords: Torrent White; Potential evaporation; Saffron crop coefficient; CCCMA IntroductionIt is necessary to grow sustainable crops in arid regions more than other places because water scarcity is higher in arid regions such as Southern Khorasan (decline in mean rainfall = 427 mm in aquifers) (www.skhrw.com). Growing sustainable crops adapted to climate conditions with high production and quality in this region can improve water productivity. On the other hand, the phenomenon of climate change causes variations in intensity and frequency of such climatic variables as mean rainfall and temperature. The reports claim that land surface temperatures are rising. Unfortunately, this rising temperature has a negative effect on climate variables in Iran (Hadizadeh et al., 2011). It should be noted that these variables directly influence the yield of the strategic plant in this region (i.e. saffron). In fact, study of the effects of climate change on water requirement of saffron as the most important input can guide the policy-makers to adopt an effective policy for management of growing saffron in this region. Many studies have investigated the effects of climate change on important crops indigenous and exported to Iran. The Third Generation Coupled Global Climate Model (CGCM3) derived from Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Models (AOGCMs) was used in order to study the effects of climate change on net irrigation requirement and yield of irrigated wheat (Soleymani et al., 2011) in Behshahr town in Mazandaran. The climate parameters of temperature and precipitation were ...