GIS-AHP Ensembles for Multi-Actor Multi-Criteria Site Selection Processes: Application to Groundwater Management under Climate Change

Abstract

A possible adaptation pathway for water suppliers in Germany who face a climatically driven increase in water stress is the development of aquifers which are not used at their full potential. However, identifying suitable sites for aquifer development can go along with severe conflict potential due to the great variety of stakeholders who are involved in the decision-making process. We approach this multi-actor and multi-criteria decision-making problem by developing a geoinformation system-based analytic hierarchy process ensemble (GIS-AHP ensemble). As opposed to the classic GIS-AHP method that yields ratings of site suitability based on a single expert evaluation, the here proposed new GIS-AHP ensemble method respects multiple expert evaluations and allows for quantifying the robustness of yielded site ratings in multi-actor contexts, which helps to mitigate conflict potential. The respectively derived GIS-AHP ensemble site ratings for northwest Germany are successfully checked for plausibility in the framework of the study by using long-established groundwater abstraction areas as indicators for good site conditions. The GIS-AHP ensemble site ratings are further tested regarding their usability for long-term water supply planning by integrating a groundwater recharge scenario under climate change for the period 2020 to 2050. The proposed GIS-AHP ensemble methodology proves useful in the given case study for fostering integrated environmental decision-making and exhibits a high transferability to other, thematically differing site selection problems.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production in the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, Vietnamese Mekong Delta

“…AHP is a quantitative method used to prioritize decision alternatives and select an alternative that satisfies pre-defined criteria (SAATY, 2008). AHP has been applied in various studies related to environmental fragility (FRANÇA et al, 2019), mapping and identifying priority areas for forest recovery (DE ALMEIDA et al, 2020), food security under climate change (ALLIPOUR BIRGANI et al, 2022), and groundwater management under climate change (SCHEIHING et al, 2022). To assess the impact of climate change on different types of agricultural production, this study combines AHP with the calculation of climate change impact indices following the formula by Balica and Wright (BALICA & WRIGHT, 2010;TÍN et al, 2018) and classifies the degree of climate change impact according to Le Anh Tuan (LE et al, 2013).…”

Study on Groundwater Function Zoning and Sustainable Development and Utilization in Jining City Planning Area

“…The GIS enables the management and visualization of relevant groundwater data, while the AHP allows for the comprehensive evaluation of multiple factors. By the rational delineation of groundwater functional zones and formulating extraction plans, it becomes possible to protect groundwater resources effectively [25,26]. This integration brings new possibilities to groundwater management, providing more powerful tools and support, and offering decision makers more comprehensive and accurate information for sustainable groundwater management [27][28][29].…”