Getting Ahead of the Curve: Assessment of New Photovoltaic Module Reliability Risks Associated With Projected Technological Changes

Abstract

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our review describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications, so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

How Credible Is the 25-Year Photovoltaic (PV) Performance Warranty?—A Techno-Financial Evaluation and Implications for the Sustainable Development of the PV Industry

“…With the 25 cumulative degradation distributions, the probability of claim and ES of each year can then be derived through the method in Figure 4 and Equation (8). The 25-year performance WF can be derived by adding up the 25 WF derived from Equation (9).…”

“…The procedure is then repeated for Module 2 to Module 1,000,000 to derive the 25 cumulative degradation distributions. With the 25 cumulative degradation distributions, the probability of a claim and the ES of each year can be derived through the method in Figure 4 and Equation (8). The 25year performance WF can be derived by adding up the 25 WF derived from Equation (9).…”

“…This brings about uncertainties in the quality and long-term performance of the PV modules. The cell cracking issues as a result of thinner wafers [7] and the Boron-oxygen light induced degradation (LID) issue of early PERC modules are two manifestations of such uncertainties [6,8]. The wide range of reported degradation rates for grid-connected PV systems also confirms this concern [9][10][11][12][13][14][15].…”