Geospatial Simulation Model of Sustainable Mangrove Development Scenarios for the Years 2030 and 2050 in Marismas Nacionales, Mexico

Abstract

Anthropogenic activities influence the loss of mangroves, increase natural phenomena such as hurricanes, tropical storms, and El Niño, and consequently increase concentrations of greenhouse gases such as CO2, promoting climate change. There are strategies to reduce emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation, the Sustainable Development Goals, and the General Law on Climate Change to counteract these conditions. Therefore, this research aims to generate an integral simulation model of sustainable mangrove development scenarios for 2030 and 2050 through mitigation strategies, using geospatial techniques, multi-criteria evaluation, and generating a future surface demand model. The Marismas Nacionales study area is a mangrove ecosystem and an important carbon sink. The simulation model determined that the mangrove area in 2030 will be 77,555 hectares, with an estimated absorption of 358.95 Gg CO2 e (equivalent). By 2050 there will be 86,476 ha, absorbing 400.24 Gg CO2 e. This increase will be in disturbed mangrove areas and other wetlands. The sustainable simulation model and the surface demand model can be applied in any study area to increase, protect, and conserve mangroves to benefit the social, economic, and environmental sectors.

Standing Crop Biomass and Carbon Content of Mangrove Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh. along the Red Sea Coast of Saudi Arabia

“…These discrepancies could be explained by the hydrogeomorphic setting directing the mangrove's blue carbon stock dynamics, in parallel to long-term transformations of landuse having a significant impact on carbon gains and losses [24]. Despite having such a crucial role in counteracting climate change and sequestering carbon [14,108,109], mangrove forests are one of the worst-suffering ecosystems, deteriorating at an alarming rate [108,[110][111][112][113]. According to Almahasheer et al [31], a 12% augmentation of the area of mangroves has been provoked by governmental initiatives along the Red Sea coastline in the past 40 years.…”