Geospatial modelling of the inundation levels in the Sundarbans mangrove forests due to the impact of sea level rise and identification of affected species and regions

Abstract

This research reveals the magnitude of mangrove area loss and future impacts on mangrove species composition and distribution due to rise in Mean Sea Level (MSL). In this study, a geospatial model of potentially inundated areas was developed using Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data to assess the potential impacts of sea level rise (SLR) on the spatial distribution of mangrove species and estimate the potential inundation and subsequent mangrove area loss. The mangrove areas of 2646 ha, 9599 ha and 74,720 ha are projected to be inundated and subsequently lost by the end of the twenty first century for the low, medium and high SLR scenarios respectively under the net subsidence rate À2.4 mm/ year relative to the baseline year 2000. All the major five mangrove species of the Bangladesh Sundarbans will be affected and this can potentially contribute to a change in the present species composition and biodiversity of the forest. Results suggest that, under the extreme scenario, inundation and subsequent loss of different mangrove species will be substantial and this can bring a massive change in the species composition and their spatial distribution in the Bangladesh Sundarbans.

Solving the fourth‐corner problem: forecasting ecosystem primary production from spatial multispecies trait‐based models

“…2007, Islam and Gnauck 2011, Ghosh et al. 2019, Mukhopadhyay et al. 2019), we considered E5 as the worst stress scenario for the ecosystem by 2050.…”

“…S2) for five future stress scenarios (E1, 10%; E2, 20%; E3, 30%; E4, 40%; and E5, 50% increase in salinity and siltation), and then used them to forecast traits and forest productivity under these novel environments. Based on the available geomorphological or hydrological model-based forecasts of salinity and siltation in the literature (IWM 2003, Wahid et al 2007, Islam and Gnauck 2011, Ghosh et al 2019, Mukhopadhyay et al 2019, we considered E5 as the worst stress scenario for the ecosystem by 2050.…”

Mangroves As Coastal Bio-Shield: A Review of Mangroves Performance in Wave Attenuation

“…Recognition of the vital role of mangroves as a natural wave barrier has raised awareness on the importance of mangrove conservation and rehabilitation. Besides being destroyed due to climatic changes [75,76] and natural hazards (e.g., tsunami, cyclone, and erosion [77,78]), land development has also resulted in mangrove losses. Clearcutting to make room for human activities such as aquaculture ponding and coastal urbanization [79,80,81], as well as land-use changes have unfortunately led to ecosystem alteration that causes the degradation of mangroves.…”

Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Cultivation in Mekong Delta, Vietnam

“…The DEM data from MONRE, Vietnam, had numerous sinks representing negative values by pixels, and so could result in problems for further use. Hence, the sinks were eliminated by modifying the negative values with improved values employing the "fill" tool in ArcGIS (version 10.4.1) [96], and so a depressionless DEM was generated. Subsequently, SLR induced inundation areas in response to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 of the year 2050 were generated using the Raster Calculator in ArcGIS 10.4.1.…”