Geometrical risk evaluation of the collisions between ships and offshore installations using rule-based Bayesian reasoning

Yu, Qing; Liu, Kezhong; Yang, Zhisen; Wang, Hongbo; Yang, Zaili

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2021.107474

Cited by 48 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 49 publications

(55 reference statements)

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“…Both quantitative and qualitative methods are used for collision risk assessment. Some studies applying quantitative methods for risk assessment are [7][8][9]. Furthermore, Goerlandt and Montewka [10] address the fact that most of the risk assessment approaches are strongly tied to probabilities, although alternative methods also exist.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation Simulator Platform for Extended Collision Risk of Autonomous Surface Vehicles

Vagale

2022

JMSE

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Autonomous surface vehicles need to be at least as safe as conventional vessels, if not safer, when navigating on waters. With a great deal of navigation algorithms for surface vessels out there, the safety of their produced paths is questionable, and, in most cases, complicated to assess and compare. Hence, this paper proposes a method for extended collision risk assessment for paths generated by autonomous navigation algorithms as follows: (1) static, dynamic, and historic risk factors are calculated; (2) individual risk value is determined using a fuzzy inference system; (3) the extended collision risk assessment (ECRA) score is acquired using a root-mean-square method. Finally, a comparison of the ECRA score of each path determines the path with the lowest risk. The validation results show that the proposed method is able to detect lower/higher risk scenarios and assign an adequate risk value in most cases. Risk reduction for cautious paths varies up to 8.43%, while risk increases for incautious paths—up to 57.98%. The results indicate that the method could be used for navigation algorithm evaluation and comparison with some improvements. This research also reveals several promising future directions and applications of the method.

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluation Simulator Platform for Extended Collision Risk of Autonomous Surface Vehicles

Vagale

2022

JMSE

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“…is type of CAS selects the optimal collision avoidance scheme through various ship dynamic parameters, e.g., course [16], relative speed [10], and ship trajectories [17]. e applied approaches in the CAS include fuzzy logic [4] and Bayesian network [18].…”

Section: Collision Avoidance Systemmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…e composite prospect values for each scheme are calculated by aggregating the above information using equation (18). ereby, pv U1 � − 0.25, pv U2 � − 0.53, pv U3 � − 0.65, pv U4 � − 0.70, pv U5 � − 0.69, and pv U6 � − 0.86.…”

Section: Journal Of Advanced Transportationmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Optimized Collision Avoidance Decision-Making System for Autonomous Ships under Human-Machine Cooperation Situations

Liu

Zhang

et al. 2021

Journal of Advanced Transportation

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Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASSs) are attracting increasing attention in recent years as it brings new opportunities for water transportation. Previous studies aim to propose fully autonomous system on collision avoidance decisions and operations, either focus on supporting conflict detection or providing with collision avoidance decisions. However, the human-machine cooperation is essential in practice at the first stage of automation. An optimized collision avoidance decision-making system is proposed in this paper, which involves risk appetite (RA) as the orientation. The RA oriented collision avoidance decision-making system (RA-CADMS) is developed based on human-machine interaction during ship collision avoidance, while being consistent with the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea (COLREGS) and Ordinary Practice of Seamen (OPS). It facilitates automatic collision avoidance and safeguards the MASS remote control. Moreover, the proposed RA-CADMS are used in several encounter situations to demonstrate the preference. The results show that the RA-CADMS is capable of providing accurate collision avoidance decisions, while ensuring efficiency of MASS maneuvering under different RA.

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“…In earlier studies, the BN is developed by using statistical analysis to model the dependence between factors and to optimize the network structure. The BN was also combined with the FSA to study the potential maritime risk in waterways as the FSA provides a clear risk assessment framework [22,26,38,39]. For instance, Zhang et al [6] proposed an FSA based BN to estimate the maritime risk of the Yangtze River.…”

Section: Risk Analysis Based On Bnmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A data-driven BN is then developed by using the above introduced Bayesian learning approach (i.e., BSA). At last, a two-step validation discusses the reliability and accuracy of the acquired BN [39].…”

Section: Implementationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Autonomous Vessels in the Yangtze River: A Study on the Maritime Accidents Using Data-Driven Bayesian Networks

Zhao

Yuan

2021

Sustainability

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The prototypes of autonomous vessels are expected to come into service within the coming years, but safety concerns remain due to complex traffic and natural conditions (e.g., Yangtze River). However, the response of autonomous vessels to potential accidents is still uncertain. The accident prevention for autonomous vessels is unconvincing due to the lack of objective studies on the causation analysis for maritime accidents. This paper constitutes an attempt to cover the aforementioned gap by studying the potential causations for maritime accidents in the Yangtze River by using a Bayesian-based network training approach. More than two hundred accidents reported between 2013 and 2019 in the Yangtze River are collected. As a result, a Bayesian network (BN) is successfully established to describe the causations among different risk influencing factors. By analysing the BN, this study reveals that the occurrence of maritime accidents (e.g., collision, grounding) can be expected to reduce with the development of autonomous vessels as the crews are removed. However, the extent of the consequences from some accidents (e.g., fire, critical weathers) could be more serious than conventional ones. Therefore, more attention and thoughts are needed to ensure the safe navigation of autonomous vessels in the Yangtze River.

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Geometrical risk evaluation of the collisions between ships and offshore installations using rule-based Bayesian reasoning

Cited by 48 publications

References 49 publications

Evaluation Simulator Platform for Extended Collision Risk of Autonomous Surface Vehicles

Evaluation Simulator Platform for Extended Collision Risk of Autonomous Surface Vehicles

An Optimized Collision Avoidance Decision-Making System for Autonomous Ships under Human-Machine Cooperation Situations

Autonomous Vessels in the Yangtze River: A Study on the Maritime Accidents Using Data-Driven Bayesian Networks

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