Geologic factors controlling patterns of small‐volume basaltic volcanism: Application to a volcanic hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Connor, Charles B.; Stamatakos, John; Ferrill, David A.; Hill, Brittain E.; Ofoegbu, Goodluck I.; Conway, F. Michael; Sagar, B.; Trapp, J.A.

doi:10.1029/1999jb900353

Cited by 151 publications

(98 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Such features include the eruptive vent locations during the three epochs of CF activity in the past 15 kyr (each epoch is separately considered), and also the maximum fault displacement and the surface fractures density. Indeed the pre-existing faults/fractures have proved to be significantly correlated with the opening of new vents and typically represent a weakness element that may favor the magma ascent (Connor et al, 2000;Calais et al, 2008;Vitale and Isaia, 2014;Mazzarini et al, 2016;Bevilacqua et al, 2017;Tadini et al, 2017). However, several other factors including the fault angle, the magma pressure and the depth of interaction can be relevant too (Gaffney et al, 2007;Le Corvec et al, 2013), but are neglected in the present study.…”

Section: Spatial Probability Distribution Of Vent Openingmentioning

confidence: 66%

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

et al. 2017

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This study presents a new method for producing long-term hazard maps for pyroclastic density currents (PDC) originating at Campi Flegrei caldera. Such method is based on a doubly stochastic approach and is able to combine the uncertainty assessments on the spatial location of the volcanic vent, the size of the flow and the expected time of such an event. The results are obtained by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified invasion model based on the box model integral approximation. Temporal assessments are modeled through a Cox-type process including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Mean and percentile maps of PDC invasion probability are produced, exploring their sensitivity to some sources of uncertainty and to the effects of the dependence between PDC scales and the caldera sector where they originated. Conditional maps representative of PDC originating inside limited zones of the caldera, or of PDC with a limited range of scales are also produced. Finally, the effect of assuming different time windows for the hazard estimates is explored, also including the potential occurrence of a sequence of multiple events. Assuming that the last eruption of Monte Nuovo (A.D. 1538) marked the beginning of a new epoch of activity similar to the previous ones, results of the statistical analysis indicate a mean probability of PDC invasion above 5% in the next 50 years on almost the entire caldera (with a probability peak of ∼25% in the central part of the caldera). In contrast, probability values reduce by a factor of about 3 if the entire eruptive record is considered over the last 15 kyr, i.e., including both eruptive epochs and quiescent periods.

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Section: Spatial Probability Distribution Of Vent Openingmentioning

confidence: 66%

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

et al. 2017

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“…Principal instrumen tation was a total-field cesium-vapor magne tometer. The resolution of the survey is nearly equivalent to ground magnetic surveys previously conducted locally in the region [Connor et al, 2000], but coverage over the survey area is uniform, permitting detection of volcanic and structural features that were not well resolved by previous aeromagnetic surveys.…”

Section: Expert Elicitationmentioning

confidence: 78%

Uncovering buried volcanoes at Yucca Mountain

2005

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/~ward/ritter_slide4.mov) demon strate that the bobsled-style course taken by the Ritter slide needed a velocity of about 40 meters per second, in order to form the trim line and to produce the mapped extent of the deposit. Before the cruise, in 2003, the main features of the Ritter tsunami observations were reproduced using a landslide model that also traveled underwater at a speed of approxi mately 40 meters per second (http://es.ucsc. edu/~ward/ritter_tsu_close_small. mov).Now it appears that these models are simulta neously consistent with data from both the land slide deposit and the tsunami that the landslide created. Such agreements provide greater con fidence in using similar approaches to predict what might happen when the flank of any other volcano heads for the ocean floor.Understanding the potential risk of tsunamis from volcano collapse is important to an island nation such as Papua New Guinea, which suf fered several thousand deaths in 1998 from a nonvolcanic landslide source [Synolakis etal, 2002], an event that was smaller in magnitude and covered a much smaller area than the Ritter collapse of 1888.

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“…Connor et al (2000) calculated an event rate of 1.3 x 10 -9 events/yr -1 per km 2 for the last 2.0 Ma for the western Great Basin. Application of this rate to a 2.5-km 2 (1-mi 2 ) facility area gives a volcanic disruption probability of 3.2 x 10 -9 events/yr -1…”

Section: Volcanismmentioning

confidence: 99%

Closure Plan for the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site at the Nevada Test Site

2007

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Integrated Closure and Monitoring Plan (DOE, 2005a). The major updates to the plan include a new closure schedule, updated closure inventory, updated site and facility characterization data, the Title II engineering cover design, and the closure process for the 92-Acre Area of the RWMS.The format and content of this site-specific plan follows the Format and Content Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Low-Level Waste Disposal Facility Closure Plans (DOE, 1999a The Area 5 RWMS accepts primarily packaged low-level waste (LLW), low-level mixed waste (LLMW), and asbestiform low-level waste (ALLW) for disposal in excavated disposal cells.The Area 5 RWMS covers 293 hectares (724 acres) and is bounded by a buffer zone 300 meters (1,000 feet) wide. The southeast and northeast quadrants of the RWMS are actively used for disposal of wastes, although many of the disposal units in the southeast quadrant, the 92-Acre Area, are operationally closed or nearing capacity. The northeast quadrant is being developed and is referred to as the "Expansion Area." NNSA/NSO is currently planning to close the 92-Acre Area in 2011. Closure planning for this site takes into account the regulatory requirements for a diversity of waste streams, disposal and storage configurations, disposal history, and site conditions. Activities associated with final closure of the 92-Acre Area are scheduled to be completed in fiscal year (FY) 2011. Activities associated with final closure of the Area 5 RWMS are scheduled to start in FY 2028 and be completed in FY 2029.The 92-Acre Area contains 25 shallow excavated pits and trenches and 13 Greater Confinement Disposal (GCD) boreholes. The pits and trenches range in depth from approximately 4.6 to 14.6 m (15 to 48 ft). A small quantity of classified transuranic (TRU) materials was inadvertently buried in one trench in 1986. The GCD boreholes are intermediatedepth disposal units, 3 to 3.7 m (10 to 12 ft) in diameter and about 36 m (120 ft) deep. Unclassified GCD boreholes include high-specific-activity LLW, whereas the classified GCD boreholes include high-specific-activity low-level, TRU, and mixed TRU (MTRU) wastes.With the exception of three disposal units, all of the pit and trench disposal/storage units within the 92-Acre Area are covered with operational covers made up of native soil approximately 2.4 m (8 ft) thick. Pits P03U, P06U, and P09U are active.

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Geologic factors controlling patterns of small‐volume basaltic volcanism: Application to a volcanic hazards assessment at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

Cited by 151 publications

References 63 publications

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

The Effects of Vent Location, Event Scale, and Time Forecasts on Pyroclastic Density Current Hazard Maps at Campi Flegrei Caldera (Italy)

Uncovering buried volcanoes at Yucca Mountain

Closure Plan for the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site at the Nevada Test Site

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