Geographically selective assortment of cycles in pandemics: meta-analysis of data collected by Chizhevsky

Abstract

SUMMARY In the incidence patterns of cholera, diphtheria and croup during the past when they were of epidemic proportions, we document a set of cycles (periods), one of which was reported and discussed by A. L. Chizhevsky in the same data with emphasis on the mirroring in human disease of the ~11-year sunspot cycle. The data in this study are based on Chizhevsky’s book The Terrestrial Echo of Solar Storms and on records from the World Health Organization. For meta-analysis, we used the extended linear and nonlinear cosinor. We found a geographically selective assortment of various cycles characterizing the epidemiology of infections, which is the documented novel topic of this paper, complementing the earlier finding in the 21st century or shortly before, of a geographically selective assortment of cycles characterizing human sudden cardiac death. Solar effects, if any, interact with geophysical processes in contributing to this assortment.

Superposed epoch analysis of physiological fluctuations: possible space weather connections

“…We know that other creatures respond to variable space weather. For instance, bacterial life appears more robust during solar maxima, as reported in the case of cholera outbreaks by Chizhevsky (1938, 1940) and Gumarova et al (2013, 2014). Possible space weather influences were reported on the circulation of rabbits (Chibisov et al 2004).…”

Transyears Competing with the Seasons in Tropical Malaria Incidence

“…An about 2-year component is also found in interplanetary and geomagnetism as well as in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and may show cross-wavelet coherence with malaria in certain regions of Thailand [9]. An about 5-year component in his time series on cholera incidence was communicated to Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky [17] by Vladimir Boleslavovich Shostakovich ( Figure 6) [18]. Decadal and multidecadal signatures are found in diphtheria, croup, relapsing fever, and cholera at a time when these diseases were rampant in meta-analyses [18] of statistics assembled descriptively by Chizhevsky [17].…”

“…An about 5-year component in his time series on cholera incidence was communicated to Alexander Leonidovich Chizhevsky [17] by Vladimir Boleslavovich Shostakovich ( Figure 6) [18]. Decadal and multidecadal signatures are found in diphtheria, croup, relapsing fever, and cholera at a time when these diseases were rampant in meta-analyses [18] of statistics assembled descriptively by Chizhevsky [17]. Chizhevsky also reports on data from Dr. SI Ivanchenko regarding the incidence of malaria in the North Caucasus from 1916 to 1930.…”

Cyclic variations in the dynamics of flu incidence in Azerbaijan, 1976–2000

“…Being novel historically, at least in Britain as hypothesized still in 1940 [21], and also more recently suggested for Azerbaijan [22], these may be considered as very important conjectures. The temporal analyses and correlations between disease incidence and solar activity factors have been shown to be very useful in generating hypotheses and predictive models not only in influenza but also in other infectious diseases such as cholera [23]. It is of interet to quote here Dr Douglas Webster [21], who wrote: this and the often close correspondence between the monthly sun-spot oscillations and influenzal ‘waves’ (as, for instance, in the three pandemic waves of 1918–19) suggest the possible causal relationship of minor sun-spot cycles to cycles of virus activity in influenza.To what extent such infrannual cyclicity of 2–3 years in flu incidence from the Grand Baku area in Azerbaijan is associated, or may interact with the underlying seasonality, as a main annual pattern is still largely unknown and may represent an interesting research question for further studies.…”