Geographical Modelling of Transit Deserts in Cape Town

Abstract

The World Bank calculated South Africa’s 2018 Gini Coefficient to be 0.63, which made it the world’s most unequal country. Such inequality is perpetuated by land-use patterns still influenced by the apartheid past. The resulting urban form necessitates long travel distances, often relying on fragmented transit modes, each with their own geographical and temporal constraints. This study applies work on transit deserts in cities in the global north to Cape Town, aiming to assess the methodological transferability to the global south, and generating case study results. In the Cape Town case, the study first analyses transit deserts based on formal public transport supply (bus rapid transit, traditional bus and train), identifying that ten out of 18 traffic analysis zones were classified as transit gaps (some unserved demand), while three of these zones qualified as transit deserts (significant undersupply). Like its U.S. counterparts, excess supply is found near Cape Town’s city centre. In Cape Town, the transit gaps/deserts are partly filled by unscheduled minibus-taxis. When this informal public transport service is added, the transit deserts disappear; however, half of the transport analysis zones still qualify as having transit gaps. It is, therefore, concluded that informal public transit in Cape Town reduces the transit gap, but does not eliminate it.

A comparison of traditional road safety assessment methods and the newly developed 'road safety deserts' approach

“…Trips in practice go across TAZs, as the origin and destination of trips are not necessarily in the same TAZ. However, this is also the case regarding 'food desert' (Beaumont et al 1995;Clarke et al 2002;Whelan et al 2002;Wrigley et al 2002;Ver Ploeg et al 2011) and 'transit desert' (Hulchanski 2010;Jiao & Dillivan 2013;Jiao 2017;Vanderschuren et al 2021) calculations, as reported by various authors. The authors of this paper acknowledge that, in the case of tourists, events or other attractions, the use of resident-based mode share may hamper the accuracy of the calculations.…”

“…In this study, 'road safety deserts' have been established for the first time. The theory development is based on earlier work related to 'food deserts' (Clarke et al 2002;Whelan et al 2002;Wrigley et al 2002) and 'transit deserts' as described by Hulchanski (2010), Jiao and Dillivan (2013), Jiao (2017) and Vanderschuren et al (2021). Social justice is at the core of the methodology, while land area and infrastructure are part of the approach.…”

“…The aim of the food desert methodology can be reworded to describe the aim of the transit desert methodology, namely "to achieve equitable access to high-quality, affordable public transport for everyone" (Newlands 2020). Vanderschuren et al (2021) then transferred and applied the transit desert theory to the South African context, proving that the methodology can be adapted and applied in different contexts, including cities in the global south. This paper uses the knowledge gained by the authors regarding 'transit deserts' and adapts the theory to the field of road safety, investigating the possibility of using supply and demand comparisons per geographical area, with the aim to identify 'road safety deserts'.…”

“…Both calculations in this methodology -safety and supply quality values -need further validation and fine-tuning. Vanderschuren et al (2021) identified that "the use of large TAZs hinders the development of detailed transit supply action plans". This study, similarly, uses large TAZs, due to data limitations.…”

Climate policy and inequality in urban areas: Beyond incomes

“…These housing issues combine with transportation challenges. Informal settlements and subsidized housing are typically located on the urban periphery (IRR, 2020), necessitating long daily commutes for low-income households to access employment opportunities in the city center (Vanderschuren et al, 2021). Rising housing prices in the city center, driven by the increasing attractiveness of the central business district (CBD), further contribute to keeping low-income households confined to the periphery.…”