Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

Burrows, Michael T.; Schoeman, David S.; Richardson, Anthony J.; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Buckley, Lauren B.; Moore, Pippa J.; Brown, Christopher J.; Bruno, John F.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Halpern, Benjamin S.; Høegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O’Connor, Mary I.; Pandolfi, John M.; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J.; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J.; Poloczanska, Elvira S.

doi:10.1038/nature12976

Cited by 471 publications

(467 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In summary, bivalves and birds show discordant latitudinal gradients in species range size that we suggest result from the biogeographic behaviour of clades during and after Pleistocene glaciations, and reflect general differences in environmental heterogeneity between marine and terrestrial systems [83,84]. The two groups share a latitudinal gradient in species and genus richness, mean per-genus species richness and genus range size, with higher latitudes increasingly enriched in broad-ranging and (globally) species-rich genera as diversity declines.…”

Section: (B) Species Richness and Genus Range Sizesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Unifying latitudinal gradients in range size and richness across marine and terrestrial systems

et al. 2016

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Many marine and terrestrial clades show similar latitudinal gradients in species richness, but opposite gradients in range size-on land, ranges are the smallest in the tropics, whereas in the sea, ranges are the largest in the tropics. Therefore, richness gradients in marine and terrestrial systems do not arise from a shared latitudinal arrangement of species range sizes. Comparing terrestrial birds and marine bivalves, we find that gradients in range size are concordant at the level of genera. Here, both groups show a nested pattern in which narrow-ranging genera are confined to the tropics and broad-ranging genera extend across much of the gradient. We find that (i) genus range size and its variation with latitude is closely associated with per-genus species richness and (ii) broad-ranging genera contain more species both within and outside of the tropics when compared with tropical-or temperate-only genera. Within-genus species diversification thus promotes genus expansion to novel latitudes. Despite underlying differences in the species range-size gradients, species-rich genera are more likely to produce a descendant that extends its range relative to the ancestor's range. These results unify species richness gradients with those of genera, implying that birds and bivalves share similar latitudinal dynamics in net species diversification.

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Section: (B) Species Richness and Genus Range Sizesmentioning

confidence: 97%

Unifying latitudinal gradients in range size and richness across marine and terrestrial systems

et al. 2016

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“…Hence, the geometric mean empirical activation energy of 1.58 ± 0.48 eV reported here for marine Mediterranean biota compounds the direct and indirect effects of warming and identifies a steeper response to warming than expected based on metabolic theory alone. The limited activation energy for migration compared to other traits likely reflects the confined nature of the Mediterranean basin, where organisms have limited scope for poleward migration (Burrows et al, 2011(Burrows et al, , 2014, thereby limited the role of migration as an adaptive strategy to cope with climate change . In summary, the synthesis presented here provides widespread evidence of severe impacts of warming on Mediterranean biota, mostly associated with the recent heat waves affecting this region, in particular the 2003 heat wave affecting the NW Mediterranean.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Indeed, climatic models predict rapid mean warming in the Mediterranean region along with a greater occurrence of extremely high temperature events (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008), also affecting the marine environment (Jordà et al, 2012). Moreover, as a result of its semienclosed nature, marine species endemic to the Mediterranean have a limited scope to adapt to ocean warming by shifting their biogeographical range poleward, tracking the migration of their isotherms to maintain their thermal niche (Burrows et al, 2011(Burrows et al, , 2014, as marine species do in general .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota

et al. 2015

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The Mediterranean Sea ranks among the ocean regions warming fastest. There is evidence for impacts of climate change on marine Mediterranean organisms but a quantitative assessment is lacking. We compiled the impacts of warming reported in the literature to provide a quantitative assessment for the Mediterranean Sea. During the last three decades the summer surface temperature has increased 1.15 • C. Strong heat wave events have occurred in years 1994, 2003, and 2009. Impacts of warming are evident on growth, survival, fertility, migration and phenology of pelagic and benthic organisms, from phytoplankton to marine vegetation, invertebrates and vertebrates. Overall, 50% of biological impacts in the Mediterranean Sea occur at summer surface temperature anomaly 4.5 • ≤ C and at summer surface temperature of 27.5 • C. The activation energy (geometric mean 1.58 ± 0.48 eV), the slope of the Arrhenius equation describing the temperature-dependence of biological processes, for the response of Mediterranean marine biota to warming reveals that these responses in the Mediterranean are far steepest than possibly explained by the direct effect of warming alone. The observations are biased toward the northern and western sectors of the basin, likely underestimating the impacts of warming in areas where warming is particularly intense.

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“…Global climate projections suggest that disappearing climates will be an increasing challenge for predicting future species' responses [51,52]. Across the Sierra Nevada, minimum temperature values (but not precipitation) recorded at several historical sites are disappearing from the landscape (i.e.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

et al. 2015

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Resurveys of historical collecting localities have revealed range shifts, primarily leading edge expansions, which have been attributed to global warming. However, there have been few spatially replicated community-scale resurveys testing whether species' responses are spatially consistent. Here we repeated early twentieth century surveys of small mammals along elevational gradients in northern, central and southern regions of montane California. Of the 34 species we analysed, 25 shifted their ranges upslope or downslope in at least one region. However, two-thirds of ranges in the three regions remained stable at one or both elevational limits and none of the 22 species found in all three regions shifted both their upper and lower limits in the same direction in all regions. When shifts occurred, high-elevation species typically contracted their lower limits upslope, whereas low-elevation species had heterogeneous responses. For high-elevation species, site-specific change in temperature better predicted the direction of shifts than change in precipitation, whereas the direction of shifts by low-elevation species was unpredictable by temperature or precipitation. While our results support previous findings of primarily upslope shifts in montane species, they also highlight the degree to which the responses of individual species vary across geographically replicated landscapes.

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Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity

Cited by 471 publications

References 25 publications

Unifying latitudinal gradients in range size and richness across marine and terrestrial systems

Unifying latitudinal gradients in range size and richness across marine and terrestrial systems

Footprints of climate change on Mediterranean Sea biota

Spatially heterogeneous impact of climate change on small mammals of montane California

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