Geographical diversity in the occurrence of extreme sea levels on the coasts of the Baltic Sea

Wolski, Tomasz; Wiśniewski, B.

doi:10.1016/j.seares.2020.101890

Cited by 23 publications

(29 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…They represent a substantial threat to the low-lying coastal areas of the Baltic Sea, in particular in the southwestern regions (Wolski et al, 2014), the Gulf of Finland (Suursaar and Sooäär, 2016;Averkiev and Klevannyy, 2010), the Gulf of Riga (Suursaar and Sooäär, 2016;Männikus et al, 2019;Suursaar et al, 2006b), and the Gulf of Bothnia (Averkiev and Klevannyy, 2010). Comparing 50 years of hourly sea level data from gauges across the entire Baltic Sea, Wolski and Wiśniewski (2020) showed that Pärnu in the Gulf of Riga and Kemi in the Gulf of Bothnia are particularly prone to storm surges. In their analysis, these two gauges were characterized by both the highest average number of surges per year and the highest average number of hours per year with extreme sea levels.…”

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In their analysis, these two gauges were characterized by both the highest average number of surges per year and the highest average number of hours per year with extreme sea levels. Regarding height, a surge in November 1824 in the Gulf of Finland was responsible for the highest recorded water level in the Baltic Sea (4.21 m above tide-gauge zero in St. Petersburg; Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020). In the western Baltic Sea, a storm in November 1872 caused water levels to exceed 3 m at many gauges (Feuchter et al, 2013;Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020).…”

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Regarding height, a surge in November 1824 in the Gulf of Finland was responsible for the highest recorded water level in the Baltic Sea (4.21 m above tide-gauge zero in St. Petersburg; Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020). In the western Baltic Sea, a storm in November 1872 caused water levels to exceed 3 m at many gauges (Feuchter et al, 2013;Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020). For the Gulf of Riga and the western Baltic Sea, respective storm surge heights of around 2 m and 1-1.5 m are typical (Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020).…”

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In the western Baltic Sea, a storm in November 1872 caused water levels to exceed 3 m at many gauges (Feuchter et al, 2013;Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020). For the Gulf of Riga and the western Baltic Sea, respective storm surge heights of around 2 m and 1-1.5 m are typical (Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020).…”

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Storm surges in the Baltic Sea can last from several hours to almost a day (Wolski and Wiśniewski, 2020). Because of the seasonal cycle in wind speed, storm surges are highest and most frequent during fall and winter (Weidemann, 2014).…”

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region

et al. 2021

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Abstract. There are a large number of geophysical processes affecting sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region. These processes operate on a large range of spatial and temporal scales and are observed in many other coastal regions worldwide. This, along with the outstanding number of long data records, makes the Baltic Sea a unique laboratory for advancing our knowledge on interactions between processes steering sea level and erosion in a climate change context. Processes contributing to sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea include the still ongoing viscoelastic response of the Earth to the last deglaciation, contributions from global and North Atlantic mean sea level changes, or contributions from wind waves affecting erosion and sediment transport along the subsiding southern Baltic Sea coast. Other examples are storm surges, seiches, or meteotsunamis which primarily contribute to sea level extremes. Such processes have undergone considerable variation and change in the past. For example, over approximately the past 50 years, the Baltic absolute (geocentric) mean sea level has risen at a rate slightly larger than the global average. In the northern parts of the Baltic Sea, due to vertical land movements, relative mean sea level has decreased. Sea level extremes are strongly linked to variability and changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation. The patterns and mechanisms contributing to erosion and accretion strongly depend on hydrodynamic conditions and their variability. For large parts of the sedimentary shores of the Baltic Sea, the wave climate and the angle at which the waves approach the nearshore region are the dominant factors, and coastline changes are highly sensitive to even small variations in these driving forces. Consequently, processes contributing to Baltic sea level dynamics and coastline change are expected to vary and to change in the future, leaving their imprint on future Baltic sea level and coastline change and variability. Because of the large number of contributing processes, their relevance for understanding global figures, and the outstanding data availability, global sea level research and research on coastline changes may greatly benefit from research undertaken in the Baltic Sea.

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Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Variability and Change In Baltic Sea Level Extremesmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Sea level dynamics and coastal erosion in the Baltic Sea region

et al. 2021

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Higher quantiles of sea levels rise faster in Baltic Sea Climate projections

Dieterich,

Radtke

2024

Clim Dyn

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Absolute sea levels in the Baltic Sea will rise under the influence of climate warming, similar to those in the world ocean. For extreme sea levels, there are indications that they will rise even faster than mean sea levels, but that topic is still controversially discussed and existing studies point into different directions. We analyzed a regional climate model ensemble for the Baltic Sea for future sea level changes. We find that the rate of change differs between high sea levels and the average: In the eastern part of the Baltic Sea, the 99th percentile of sea level was predicted to rise faster than the median. In the south-western part, the relation was opposite. Thus, our simulations predict a change not only in the sea level mean, but also in its distribution. This pattern was almost consistent between the individual ensemble members. We investigated the 99th percentile as a proxy for extreme sea levels, since their partially stochastic nature limits the predictive skill of our 20-member ensemble. Our findings imply that adapting coastal protection to mean sea level change only may be regionally insufficient.

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