Geographical distribution, climatic variability and thermo‐tolerance of Chagas disease vectors

Vega, Gerardo José de la; Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Rabinovich, Jorge E.; Schilman, Pablo E.

doi:10.1111/ecog.01028

Cited by 38 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…The INLA approach used here is based also on a Bayesian setting and in principle provided similar results to those obtained with the MCMC approach, with the benefit of an easier implementation. Our resulting distribution maps differ of those reported by de la Vega et al (2015) [14], but most of the differences are explained by the different spatial resolution of their study. INLA and MCMC methods agreed in the shape and the extent of the spatial distribution in general for each species, but we observed slight differences particularly regarding the smoothness of the fitted random field fitted.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Hierarchical spatial modeling of the presence of Chagas disease insect vectors in Argentina. A comparative approach

Paz

Díaz-Ávalos

Mejía‐Domínguez

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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We modeled the spatial distribution of the most important Chagas disease vectors in Argentina, in order to obtain a predictive mapping method for the probability of presence of the vector species. We analyzed both the binary variable of presence-absence of Chagas disease and the vector species richness in Argentina, in combination with climatic and topographical covariates associated to the region of interest. We used several statistical techniques to produce distribution maps of presence-absence for the different insect species as well as species richness, using a hierarchical Bayesian framework within the context of multivariate geostatistical modeling. Our results show that the inclusion of covariates improves the quality of the fitted models, and that there is spatial interaction between neighboring cells/pixels, so mapping methods used in the past, which assumed spatial independence, are not adequate as they provide unreliable results.

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 99%

Hierarchical spatial modeling of the presence of Chagas disease insect vectors in Argentina. A comparative approach

Paz

Díaz-Ávalos

Mejía‐Domínguez

et al. 2016

Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess

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“…Hence, if temperatures rise above that thermal threshold, behavioral thermoregulation might not buffer its impact. Furthermore, upper lethal temperature (ULT) lies very close to CTmax (Chown & Nicolson, 2004;de la Vega, Medone, Ceccarelli, Rabinovich, & Schilman, 2015; de la Vega & Schilman, 2018). Thus, survival will rely on the existence of genetic variation for increased heat tolerance present in natural populations (Bush et al, 2016).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Genetic variation for tolerance to high temperatures in a population ofDrosophila melanogaster

Rolandi

Lighton²,

Vega

et al. 2018

Ecology and Evolution

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The range of thermal tolerance is one of the main factors influencing the geographic distribution of species. Climate change projections predict increases in average and extreme temperatures over the coming decades; hence, the ability of living beings to resist these changes will depend on physiological and adaptive responses. On an evolutionary scale, changes will occur as the result of selective pressures on individual heritable differences. In this work, we studied the genetic basis of tolerance to high temperatures in the fly Drosophila melanogaster and whether this species presents sufficient genetic variability to allow expansion of its upper thermo‐tolerance limit. To do so, we used adult flies derived from a natural population belonging to the Drosophila Genetic Reference Panel, for which genomic sequencing data are available. We characterized the phenotypic variation of the upper thermal limit in 34 lines by measuring knockdown temperature (i.e., critical thermal maximum [CTmax]) by exposing flies to a ramp of increasing temperature (0.25°C/min). Fourteen percent of the variation in CTmax is explained by the genetic variation across lines, without a significant sexual dimorphism. Through a genomewide association study, 12 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with the CTmax were identified. In most of these SNPs, the less frequent allele increased the upper thermal limit suggesting that this population harbors raw genetic variation capable of expanding its heat tolerance. This potential upper thermal tolerance increase has implications under the global warming scenario. Past climatic records show a very low incidence of days above CTmax (10 days over 25 years); however, future climate scenarios predict 243 days with extreme high temperature above CTmax from 2045 to 2070. Thus, in the context of the future climate warming, rising temperatures might drive the evolution of heat tolerance in this population by increasing the frequency of the alleles associated with higher CTmax.

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“…1 km 2 ) resolution. Despite the scale of our analysis being regional (national coverage), we decided to use a fine grain of 30 00 spatial resolution because of the importance for the triatomines of local climatic conditions; de la Vega et al [57] have linked geographical distribution to physiological traits in the same two species analysed here, and WorldClim generated the climatic data through interpolation of average monthly climate data from weather stations also on a 30 arc-second resolution grid.…”

Section: (C) Environmental Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

Medone

Ceccarelli

Parham

et al. 2015

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B

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Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi , is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach.

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Geographical distribution, climatic variability and thermo‐tolerance of Chagas disease vectors

Cited by 38 publications

References 67 publications

Hierarchical spatial modeling of the presence of Chagas disease insect vectors in Argentina. A comparative approach

Hierarchical spatial modeling of the presence of Chagas disease insect vectors in Argentina. A comparative approach

Genetic variation for tolerance to high temperatures in a population ofDrosophila melanogaster

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

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