Geographic variability in homicide rates following the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

It has been demonstrated in a number of communities that the rates of serious crimes such as homicides and intimate partner violence have increased as a result of lockdowns due to COVID-19. To ascertain whether this is a universal trend the electronic autopsy files at Forensic Science South Australia, Adelaide, Australia, were searched for all homicides occurring between January 2015 and December 2020. There were 92 cases with 17 homicides in 2015 out of a total of 1356 cases (1.3%),18 in 2016 (18/1340 = 1.3%), 23 in 2017 (23/1419 = 1.6%); 14 in 2018 (14/1400 = 1.0%), 15 in 2019 (15/1492 = 1.0%) but in 2020 there were only 5 (5/1374 = 0.4%) (p < 0.02). Thus the incidence of homicides has fallen significantly in South Australia since the beginning of the pandemic. As the occurrence of serious crimes of violence and homicide has not followed a standard pattern in different communities it will be important to evaluate specific populations and subgroups rather than merely relying on accrued national data or extrapolating from one country to another. Pathologists, epidemiologists and health officials will need to specifically monitor local trends to understand more clearly what effects, if any, the pandemic has had on particular subgroups of deaths in order to more clearly understand causal relationships.

Retrospective study of non-natural manners of death in Ontario: Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related public health measures

“…We found minimal impact of the pandemic lockdown stages on homicides rates in Ontario, particularly when comparing to recent years. This contrasts with other reports that have documented homicide deaths to have increased 23 and decreased 10 , 24 and suggest reports of increased domestic violence rates in some jurisdictions following stay-at-home orders 1 may not translate into increased homicide rates in Ontario. Other studies have similarly found a consistent homicide rate in some regions.…”

“…Various countries and jurisdictions report differing trends when comparing pre-pandemic death data to during or post-lockdown death types. These include decreased, 4 - 10 increased, 7 - 9 , 11 - 13 and steady 8 , 13 - 22 suicide rates; as well as increased, 23 decreased, 10 , 24 and steady 21 - 23 homicide rates. Given the variation of the studies thus far, the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the frequency of non-natural deaths are unclear.…”

Domestic Violence During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review

“…Moreover, although traditionally there is a correlation between domestic violence and homicide cases (Iratzoqui & McCutcheon, 2018), during the COVID-19 confinement measures, there was a reduction in homicide, especially in women (Byard, 2021; Calderon-Anyosa & Kaufman, 2020), despite the increase of intimate partner violence and domestic violence in general. This may be explained due to the fact that in general in most cases where the victim is a woman, their body is found in public places—where the access now is limited due to COVID-19 measures—rather than at home (Calderon-Anyosa & Kaufman, 2020).…”

Intimate Partner Abuse and Homicide During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Situational Action Theory Analysis

“…Certain types of IPA appear to have increased more than others, particularly psychological abuse (IPP) and remote forms of IPA (e.g., stalking and harassment) (e.g., Arenas-Arroyo et al, 2021;Lausi et al, 2021;McNeil et al, 2023;Soeiro et al, 2023;Trafford, 2022). However, the most severe form, IPH, did not increase in most countries and decreased in many (e.g., Aebi et al, 2021;Byard, 2021;Cantor et al, 2022;Miller et al, 2022).…”