Geographic Information System Methodology for Assessing Growth Effects of Highway Improvements

Abstract

A methodology is presented to assess the induced land use effects of state highway improvements on urban development patterns. The methodology is applied to the case study city of Hillsboro, Oregon, and illustrates a framework for data management and analysis. Temporal land use characteristics and spatial measures are used as predictors of urban development activities resulting from highway accessibility improvements. A logit regression analysis tests the significance of these variables in predicting the locations of urban development over time. The primary objective of this research is to identify the relationship between capacity-increasing highway improvements and changes in urban development. The analysis provides quantifiable indicators that describe the urban development trends associated with the city of Hillsboro.

Simulation of Land Use Consequences of Urban Corridor in Kolkata: An Integrated Spatial and Expert System Model

“…These methods include 'predictive' and 'evaluative' assessments. While predictive methods are based on deterministic (input/ output, benefit/cost, cost-effectiveness) (Zhang et al, 2006), scenario (trend case study, growth scenario), multi-criteria evaluation analysis (ranking methods, multi-objective optimization, multi-attribute utility analysis) (Sayers et al, 2003), statistical (regression), survey (interviews, contingent valuation); the evaluative modeling includes quasi-experimental methods, simulation using GIS (Sanchez et al, 1999;Vold, 2005) and case comparisons. Micro-simulation models of land use are also often coupled with transportation models and are integrated into larger urban simulation models (Waddell et al, 2003).…”

Predicting Land Use Change

“…Regression models allow the identification of exogenous variables, which are thought to influence patterns of development. The variables can represent physical and social influences on development (11,12), neighborhood effects (12,13), or the effects of transportation and accessibility (14,15). It is these latter effects that are of the greatest interest in the current context.…”

Induced Travel Demand: Research Design, Empirical Evidence, and Normative Policies

“…Some of the added trips are new or induced, and some are diverted. Although evidence on the induced-growth effects of new highways is limited (Dunphy 1996;Boarnet 1997;Sanchez et al 1998;Cervero 2002), roads and prominent fixtures of America's landscape that they serve-for example, big-box retail, edge cities, and corporate campuses-are clearly codependent. Some observers contend that only newly generated traffic should be treated as induced demand (as portrayed in Figure 1) since only newly added VMT increases loads on highway networks.…”