Geographic characteristics of sable (Martes zibellina) distribution over time in Northeast China

Abstract

Understanding historical context can help clarify the ecological and biogeographic characteristics of species population changes. The sable (Martes zibellina) population has decreased dramatically in Northeast China since the l950s, and understanding the changes in its distribution over time is necessary to support conservation efforts. To achieve this goal, we integrated ecological niche modeling and historical records of sables to estimate the magnitude of change in their distribution over time. Our results revealed a 51.71% reduction in their distribution in 2000–2016 compared with the potential distribution in the 1950s. This reduction was related to climate change (Pearson's correlation: Bio1, −.962, p < .01; Bio2, −.962, p < .01; Bio5, .817, p < .05; Bio6, .847, p < .05) and human population size (−.956, p < .01). The sable population tended to migrate in different directions and elevations over time in different areas due to climate change: In the Greater Khingan Mountains, they moved northward and to lower elevations; in the Lesser Khingan Mountains, they moved northward; and in the Changbai Mountains, they move southward and to higher elevations. Active conservation strategies should be considered in locations where sable populations have migrated or may migrate to.

Historical data for conservation: reconstructing range changes of Chinese pangolin ( Manis pentadactyla ) in eastern China (1970–2016)

“…In this case, the potential distribution can be captured by our approach due to several reasons: (i) historical records already contained potential information about human influence [15–17,20]; (ii) human influence layers for different periods were included for ensemble modelling; and (iii) quality historical climate data were obtained for each period [35]. …”

“…Following the data collection process described in our previous research [14–17,20], we collected pangolin data from five sources: local historical documents, fauna records, nature reserve scientific surveys, published scientific research (including articles and specimen records) and news articles. We also conducted semi-structured interviews with local people to collect data for occurrences after the year 2000 [12,33,34].…”

Long‐term ecological data for conservation: Range change in the black‐billed capercaillie (Tetrao urogalloides) in northeast China (1970s–2070s)

“…To reduce collinearities among the variables used for modeling and avoid inappropriately complex models, we built a Spearman correlation matrix for all variables (Ranjitkar et al., ; Zhang et al., ). We drew a tree diagram (Appendix ) using the Hmisc package in R to facilitate variable selection.…”

“…Multiple resources and ecological niche model have proven to be effective methods of reconstructing historical distributions from long‐term ecological data (Zhang et al., ). Multiple cross‐checked data resources can reduce nonstandardized sampling and errors and provide sufficient data for further analysis (Boakes et al., ; Fonzo et al., ; Ren et al., ).…”

“…Despite recognizing the considerable potential benefits of long-term ecological archives to conservation research, policy, and practices, relatively few studies have analyzed multidecadal datasets or have examined changes in biogeography from a historical perspective (Davies et al, 2014;Li, Waller, & Syphard, 2017;McClenachan et al, 2012;Turvey et al, 2015). Therefore, in conservation efforts, there is a need to provide effective methods to assess the utility and potential limitations of long-term ecological data to develop a meaningful understanding of population dynamics from the past to the future (McClenachan et al, 2012;Yang et al, 2016;Zhang et al, 2016Zhang et al, , 2017.…”