The exploration potential within deep-water petroliferous basins holds great promise for oil and gas resources. However, the dearth of geochemical and isotopic data poses a formidable challenge in comprehending the intricate hydrocarbon charging processes, thereby impeding the comprehensive understanding of hydrocarbon accumulation mechanisms and models. Consequently, the establishment of robust source–reservoir relationships in deep-water petroliferous basins represents a pivotal challenge that significantly influences the exploration strategies and the comprehension of hydrocarbon enrichment dynamics within such basins. In this study, we introduce a novel approach, termed the “source–reservoir dynamic evaluation method,” tailored to investigate reservoir accumulation models in deep-water petroliferous basins. This method uses basin simulation technology to recover the thermal evolution history and hydrocarbon generation and expulsion history of source rocks, and on this basis delimits the hydrocarbon kitchen range. At the same time, the maturity of source rocks corresponding to crude oil and natural gas in typical reservoirs is calculated. Then, when the thermal evolution degree of source rocks adjacent to the reservoir reaches this maturity, the corresponding geological period is the main charging period of hydrocarbon. As a typical deep-water petroliferous basin, the Santos Basin in Brazil has abundant oil and gas reservoirs under the thick salt rock, but there are still some fundamental problems such as unclear oil–gas accumulation process and model. Therefore, in this paper, the main charging periods of typical hydrocarbon reservoirs are determined based on the internal relationship between the thermal evolution history of the main source rocks and the maturity of crude oil and natural gas, and then the hydrocarbon accumulation process is analyzed and the dynamic accumulation model is established. Finally, the favorable prospecting direction is pointed out. The results show that the oil and gas in the Barra Velha Formation in the Santos basin are mainly derived from the Itapema Formation lacustrine shale source rock, and the source rock is mainly developed in the Eastern Sag of the Central Depression, and its main hydrocarbon generation period is from the deposition period of Florianopolis Formation to the deposition period of Santos Formation. The main hydrocarbon expulsion period was from the deposition period of the Santos Formation to the Early deposition of the Iguape Formation. The oil and gas in the Barra Velha Formation were mainly charged from the Late deposition period of the Santos Formation to the Early deposition period of the Iguape Formation. During this period, the hydrocarbon migrated vertically along the normal fault formed in the rift period to the trap of the adjacent inheritance structural highs and accumulated in the reservoir, which was dominated by the accumulation model of the “lower generation-upper reservoir-salt cap”. Since the Barra Velha Formation has the characteristics of near-source accumulation, based on the hydrocarbon expulsion center and hydrocarbon expulsion intensity of the source rock of the Itapema Formation, the distribution ranges of 85% and 50% Pre-salt accumulation probability in the Santos basin were calculated by using the quantitative analysis model of the hydrocarbon distribution threshold. It is suggested that the next oil and gas exploration should be carried out in the paleo-structural highs and slope of Class I favorable area (the hydrocarbon accumulation probability is more than 85%) and Class II favorable area (the hydrocarbon accumulation probability is 85–50%).
