Genomic prediction of cognitive traits in childhood and adolescence

Abstract

Recent advances in genomics are producing powerful DNA predictors of complex traits, especially cognitive abilities. Here, we leveraged summary statistics from the most recent genome-wide association studies of intelligence and educational attainment, with highly genetically correlated traits, to build prediction models of general cognitive ability and educational achievement. To this end, we compared the performances of multi-trait genomic and polygenic scoring methods. In a representative UK sample of 7,026 children at ages 12 and 16, we show that we can now predict up to 11 percent of the variance in intelligence and 16 percent in educational achievement. We also show that predictive power increases from age 12 to age 16 and that genomic predictions do not differ for girls and boys. We found that multi-trait genomic methods were effective in boosting predictive power. Prediction accuracy varied across polygenic score approaches, however results were similar for different multi-trait and polygenic score methods. We discuss general caveats of multi-trait methods and polygenic score prediction, and conclude that polygenic scores for educational attainment and intelligence are currently the most powerful predictors in the behavioural sciences.

Predicting educational achievement from genomic measures and socioeconomic status

“…A GPS derived from this GWA study predicts up to 13% of the variance in educational attainment in adults in independent samples (Lee et al, ). We have shown that a GPS for educational attainment predicts even more variance (15%) in tested educational achievement in 16‐year‐old adolescents (Allegrini et al, ), making this the most predictive GPS for any behavioural trait at present.…”

“…Previous research has suggested that the prediction of educational achievement from both GPS and SES increases during development (Allegrini et al, ; Selzam et al, ; von Stumm, ), but their relative contribution over time to educational achievement or their interaction has not been explicitly tested before. Longitudinal latent growth curve analysis, which disentangles initial effects on a developmental measure (intercept) from systematic increases and decreases which follow (slope), is particularly useful for this purpose (McArdle, ).…”

Cognitive ability and education: how behavioural genetic research has advanced our knowledge and understanding of their association

“…Interestingly, the GPS constructed from the GWA study of educational attainment predicts over 14% of the variance in academic achievement at age 16, measured as standardized exam scores (Allegrini et al, 2019), compared to 11.4% of the variance in educational attainment (years of education) across two adult samples . Panel c. shows the increase in the predictive power of GPS when adopting multivariate methods (Allegrini et al, 2019).…”

“…Interestingly, the GPS constructed from the GWA study of educational attainment predicts over 14% of the variance in academic achievement at age 16, measured as standardized exam scores (Allegrini et al, 2019), compared to 11.4% of the variance in educational attainment (years of education) across two adult samples . Panel c. shows the increase in the predictive power of GPS when adopting multivariate methods (Allegrini et al, 2019). The multivariate GPS considered in panel c. aggregated discoveries across five GWAS of traits relevant for cognition and education (EA3, IQ3, income, age when education was completed and use of computer; Allegrini et al, 2019).…”

Should Cognitive Differences Research Be Forbidden?

“…How dangerous is knowledge about the genetic determinants of intelligence? In most situations, the polygenic scores that are used to predict intelligence will not raise fundamentally new ethical issues because they are not (much) more predictive than traditional demographics such as parents' education [64]. New ethical issues do arise when predictive genetic testing is used to select pre-implantation embryos for higher intelligence.…”