Abstract:Climate change poses several challenges to biological communities including changes in the frequency of encounters between closely related congeners as a result of range shifts. When climate change leads to increased hybridization, hybrid dysfunction or genetic swamping may increase extinction risk—particularly in range‐restricted species with low vagility. The Peaks of Otter Salamander, Plethodon hubrichti, is a fully terrestrial woodland salamander that is restricted to ~18 km of ridgeline in the mountains o… Show more
“…Previous work inferred that P. shenandoah habitats were occupied by the species alone, though they were expected to be invasible by the presumably dominant competitor P. cinereus (Jaeger, 1971 ). Recent genetic work between P. cinereus and a different mountain endemic, P. hubrichti , suggests that movement of P. cinereus into its range is relatively recent (Page et al., 2020 ), so it is possible that is the case for the P. shenandoah occupied range as well.…”
Estimating distributions for cryptic and highly range‐restricted species induces unique challenges for species distribution modeling. In particular, bioclimatic covariates that are typically used to model species ranges at regional and continental scales may not show strong variation at scales of 100s and 10s of meters. This limits both the likelihood and usefulness of correlated occurrence to data typically used in distribution models. Here, we present analyses of species distributions, at 100 × 100 m resolution, for a highly range restricted salamander species (Shenandoah salamander, Plethodon shenandoah) and a closely related congener (red‐backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus). We combined data across multiple survey types, account for seasonal variation in availability of our target species, and control for repeated surveys at locations– all typical challenges in range‐scale monitoring datasets. We fit distribution models using generalized additive models that account for spatial covariates as well as unexplained spatial variation and spatial uncertainty. Our model accommodates different survey protocols using offsets and incorporates temporal variation in detection and availability resulting from survey‐specific variation in temperature and precipitation. Our spatial random effect was crucial in identifying small‐scale differences in the occurrence of each species and provides cell‐specific estimates of uncertainty in the density of salamanders across the range. Counts of both species were seen to increase in the 3 days following a precipitation event. However, P. cinereus were observed even in extremely wet conditions, while surface activity of P. shenandoah was associated with a more narrow range. Our results demonstrate how a flexible analytical approach improves estimates of both distribution and uncertainty, and identify key abiotic relationships, even at small spatial scales and when scales of empirical data are mismatched. While our approach is especially valuable for species with small ranges, controlling for spatial autocorrelation, estimating spatial uncertainty, and incorporating survey‐specific information in estimates can improve the reliability of distribution models in general.
“…Previous work inferred that P. shenandoah habitats were occupied by the species alone, though they were expected to be invasible by the presumably dominant competitor P. cinereus (Jaeger, 1971 ). Recent genetic work between P. cinereus and a different mountain endemic, P. hubrichti , suggests that movement of P. cinereus into its range is relatively recent (Page et al., 2020 ), so it is possible that is the case for the P. shenandoah occupied range as well.…”
Estimating distributions for cryptic and highly range‐restricted species induces unique challenges for species distribution modeling. In particular, bioclimatic covariates that are typically used to model species ranges at regional and continental scales may not show strong variation at scales of 100s and 10s of meters. This limits both the likelihood and usefulness of correlated occurrence to data typically used in distribution models. Here, we present analyses of species distributions, at 100 × 100 m resolution, for a highly range restricted salamander species (Shenandoah salamander, Plethodon shenandoah) and a closely related congener (red‐backed salamander, Plethodon cinereus). We combined data across multiple survey types, account for seasonal variation in availability of our target species, and control for repeated surveys at locations– all typical challenges in range‐scale monitoring datasets. We fit distribution models using generalized additive models that account for spatial covariates as well as unexplained spatial variation and spatial uncertainty. Our model accommodates different survey protocols using offsets and incorporates temporal variation in detection and availability resulting from survey‐specific variation in temperature and precipitation. Our spatial random effect was crucial in identifying small‐scale differences in the occurrence of each species and provides cell‐specific estimates of uncertainty in the density of salamanders across the range. Counts of both species were seen to increase in the 3 days following a precipitation event. However, P. cinereus were observed even in extremely wet conditions, while surface activity of P. shenandoah was associated with a more narrow range. Our results demonstrate how a flexible analytical approach improves estimates of both distribution and uncertainty, and identify key abiotic relationships, even at small spatial scales and when scales of empirical data are mismatched. While our approach is especially valuable for species with small ranges, controlling for spatial autocorrelation, estimating spatial uncertainty, and incorporating survey‐specific information in estimates can improve the reliability of distribution models in general.
AimsGlacial retreat at the end of the Pleistocene epoch opened vast expanses of emergent habitat in the northern hemisphere that were colonized by opportunistic taxa. However, species that undergo post‐glacial expansion may have originated from one or several glacial refugia. We inferred the post‐glacial expansion history of the Eastern Red‐backed Salamander (Plethodon cinereus), a fully terrestrial species with a vast distribution despite severe dispersal limitations. Previous studies indicated populations south of the glacial boundary at the eastern and western limits of the distribution were closely related, suggesting either multiple refugia or an extraordinary post‐glacial expansion event.LocationEastern North America.TaxonPlethodon cinereus (Green, 1818), Caudata: Plethodontidae.MethodsWe collected ddRAD‐seq data from 106 individuals throughout the distribution of P. cinereus. We estimated phylogeographic structure, including finer‐scale structure among the post‐glacial populations. To test the origins and routes of colonization, we used ecological niche modelling, population trees and analyses of directional range expansion.ResultsAnalyses supported our hypothesis of a southeastern glacial refugium, with northward expansion along the Eastern Seaboard prior to westward invasion into the Great Lakes region, including southwestern expansion into unglaciated areas at the western end of the distribution. However, a distinct subgroup in the northwestern portion of the range raises the possibility of a second refugium near the ice‐free Driftless Area.Main ConclusionsBased on our results, we hypothesize a southeastern refugium from which most of today's northern populations undertook extensive post‐glacial colonization. Our results indicate a geographically non‐linear colonization history for P. cinereus.
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