Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants

Abstract

Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (FST; up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with FST estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.

From past to future: impact of climate change on range shifts and genetic diversity patterns of circumboreal plants

“…8°latitude to the north in Eurasia and North America. This is in accord with work on Arctic plants predicting that at the end of the century loss of geographic range will generally be higher than the range gain (Alsos et al 2012), but does not correspond to the twofold lower values given for Mediterranean-temperate tree species (Temunovic et al 2013) and temperate tree species under different emission scenarios (Morin and Viner et Chuine 2008). In our different climatic scenarios, the (highly isolated) Central European populations of the three circumboreal plants we studied will become critically endangered or even extinct in the future.…”

“…Spearman rank correlations were used to estimate the degree of association of gene diversity (H) and frequency-down-weighted marker values (DW) with longitude and latitude and bioclimatic variables for modeling the current distribution for each taxon. We also estimated the expected loss of genetic diversity within each investigated taxon as the consequences of range loss based on the assumptions and method proposed by Alsos et al (2012). The study area was divided on an arbitrary grid of 500 km × 500 km cells using ARCMAP 9.2, and only grid cells with the sampling localities were considered.…”

“…Northern plant species could be more severely threatened than other species by recent and future climate change Parmesan 2006). Only Alsos et al (2012) have exhaustively described future genetic and geographic diversity patterns of northern plants; they pointed out that a higher loss of genetic diversity is to be expected within this plant group than for temperate species Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10113-017-1208-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.…”

“…In recent years, climate has been more frequently considered as a factor shaping genetic resources within species, through species distribution shifts and increasing range fragmentation. Although surveys of genetic diversity under current climate conditions have a rich history in the literature, potential future impacts on the genetic diversity of species are rarely examined (Alsos et al 2009;Thomassen et al 2010;Beatty and Provan 2011;Collevatti et al 2011;Alsos et al 2012;Jay et al 2012;Eidesen et al 2013;Temunovic et al 2013;Steane et al 2014). Northern plant species could be more severely threatened than other species by recent and future climate change Parmesan 2006).…”

Predicting Future Seed Sourcing of Platycladus orientalis (L.) for Future Climates Using Climate Niche Models

“…For example, we projected that the most suitable seed for the south of the Northern and Northwestern seed zone would come from the Central seed zone in the future, and the most suitable seed for the south of the Central seed zone would come from the Southern zone in the future. Niche modeling studies suggested that the widespread species with their large population sizes, broad geographic distributions, and high fecundity may have broader adaptability to climate change, therefore, the overall change is relatively small [10,73]. Seed zones representing a restricted geographic region with local adapted populations make them more susceptible to climate change, thus strengthening our approach for assessing climate change impact at the seed zone level.…”