Generation of climate change scenarios for precipitation and temperature at local scales using SDSM in Wami-Ruvu River Basin Tanzania

Gulacha, Metekiya Menza; Mulungu, Deogratias M.M.

doi:10.1016/j.pce.2016.10.003

Cited by 60 publications

(43 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…In studies like the one performed by Nakaegawa [40] or Ospina [41], river discharge in the north of Colombia was analyzed using direct output from a GCM as a hydrometeorological input of the model, and similar studies could be performed in the four selected water districts at the east of Colombia considering the results of the current study in order to use the historical records from these areas to develop a regional climate downscaling or water budget analysis. The spatial and temporal data resolutions show acceptable characteristics for the purpose of performing reliable posterior analysis such as some developed through statistical regional downscaling on other areas with similar characteristics [31,32,[42][43][44], or water budget analysis [45][46][47][48][49]. The use of a dynamical downscaling method could also provide more accurate results, but this approach demands much more intensive computational resources and require large volumes of data which are not available for the studied regions, thus, using a statistical downscaling technique is recommended as a first approach.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Several existing statistical downscaling methods have been applied in different climate regions and the results of these studies have shown that different methods have strengths in capturing different aspects of the downscaling [32]. Combining the results from diverse methods by weighting procedures can present a better performance than individual methods.…”

Section: Regional Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Assessment of Regional and Historical Climate Records for a Water Budget Approach in Eastern Colombia

Molina

Bernhofer

2019

Water

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Regions located on the eastern side of Colombia are vulnerable to climate change due to the high diversity of fauna and flora located there, the potentially direct impact on agricultural activities, as well as the pressure on water resources. Limited research and work have been conducted to accurately create a description of the climate of these specific regions. The characteristics of the available records, which is valuable information, together with complementary data can be used to simulate the impacts of climate change and the effects it has on the water cycle. A description of the climate for the eastern region of Colombia was made and historical daily records from 669 hydrometeorological stations were considered in order to analyze the robustness and spatial distribution of the data. According to the available data, four of the water districts that compose the eastern region of the country were selected to show both a representative analysis of the climate variability and a consistency analysis using a cross-correlation procedure. A high percentage of missing values was found in the available records; however, with regards to the climatological analysis for the period from 1980 to 2015, 40% of missing values or less seems to be a good threshold for the datasets to be used. Temperature records show monthly small variations and a decreasing average rate from lower to higher elevations, i.e., 5 • C every 1000 m. Precipitation shows different patterns according to the region with monomodal and bimodal patterns. Correlations between datasets of the same region are positive and a significant correlation is obtained with temperature for stations at similar elevations or those located close to each other, and low correlations of precipitation are found. These data records are considered a good source of input data which could be used to perform further analysis such as a climate downscaling procedure, as well as a potential water budget approach for the four studied regions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Regional Downscalingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Regional and Historical Climate Records for a Water Budget Approach in Eastern Colombia

Molina

Bernhofer

2019

Water

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“…Although there is a paucity of studies quantifying the effects of climate change on the Tanzanian river basins, studies have predicted that the Rufiji River Basin-part of which is drained by the Great Ruaha River-will experience increased rainfall and therefore river flows, while the Wami-Ruvu River system will experience the opposite-decreased rainfall relative to historical patterns [81,82]. However, a more recent study, Gulacha and Mulungu [83] modelled climate change precipitation scenarios in the Wami-Ruvu and found a general increase in annual and monthly precipitation. Although Kangalawe et al [84] support the hypothesis of increased rainfall within the Great Ruaha River basin with long-term rainfall records from 1980-2009 from the Iringa meteorological that show a slight increase over time, the high interannual variation have created a local perception of decreasing rainfall.…”

Section: Climate Changementioning

confidence: 99%

Conserving Rivers and Their Biodiversity in Tanzania

Seeteram

Hyera²,

Kaaya

et al. 2019

Water

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The United Republic of Tanzania (Tanzania) is rich in freshwater resources and biodiversity. In this article, we highlight the importance of Tanzanian rivers and make a case for the conservation of the freshwater and terrestrial species that rely on these rivers. We provide an overview of current knowledge on Tanzanian rivers and discuss progress towards implementation of the National Water Policy (2002) and Water Management Act (2009), two legislative instruments that have motivated environmental flow assessments on at least six major rivers and offer legal backing for river conservation. We examine major challenges that pose significant threats to water security for river ecosystems and humans in Tanzania, among those: (1) human population growth, (2) agricultural expansion, (3) river flow alterations, (4) industrialization, (5) introduced species, and (6) climate change. We conclude by offering recommendations for future river conservation efforts in Tanzania.

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“…Khan et al [8] in Canada, Wang & Lau [9] in United state of America (USA), Hashmi et al [10] in News land and Gulacha & Mulungu [11] in Tanzania utilized GCM and different downscaling methods for prediction of climatic data (as rainfall, temperature and etc.) in future.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…in future. Gulacha & Mulungu [11] utilized the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) for downscaling of prepared data by GCM model in the Wami-Ruvu River basin. They considered the base time period from 1961-1990 and used of the HadCM3 for preparation of precipitation and temperature data in 2020s, 2050s and 2080s based on B2 and A2 scenarios.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Development of a new integrated method for generation IDF curves based on three climatic changes scenarios

Adib

Rad

2017

Scientia Iranica

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Climate change can change the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. This research evaluates IDF curves changes of the Baghmalek climatic station in Iran's southwest. Developed integrated method extracts the IDF curves using of the Gumbel and log-Pearson III probability distributions and observed maximum annual precipitations. Durations of these precipitations are 15, 30, 45 minutes and 1,2,3,6 and 12 hours.For this purpose, this method utilizes the recorded precipitation data of the Baghmalek climatic station in a 40-year period . Then mean square error method determines the probability distribution that has the best fitting with this data. The HadCM3 prepares precipitation data for a 30-year period (2021-2050) based on A1B, B1 and A2 scenarios. Also this method selects an optimum artificial neural network to extraction of maximum annual rainfall intensity for different durations and scenarios. 2Then selected network and the chosen probability distribution produce IDF curves for different return periods and scenarios. Produced IDF curves for different scenarios are compared to IDF curves of base time period. Because of increasing carbon dioxide and its greenhouse effects in these scenarios, rainfall intensity will increase for return periods less than 2.33 years while it will decrease for return periods more than 2.33 years.

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Generation of climate change scenarios for precipitation and temperature at local scales using SDSM in Wami-Ruvu River Basin Tanzania

Cited by 60 publications

References 30 publications

Assessment of Regional and Historical Climate Records for a Water Budget Approach in Eastern Colombia

Assessment of Regional and Historical Climate Records for a Water Budget Approach in Eastern Colombia

Conserving Rivers and Their Biodiversity in Tanzania

Development of a new integrated method for generation IDF curves based on three climatic changes scenarios

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