Generation length of the world’s amphibians and reptiles

Abstract

Variation in life histories influences demographic processes from adaptive changes to population declines leading to extinction. Among life history traits, generation length offers a critical feature to forecast species demographic trajectories such as population declines (widely used by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species) and adaptability to environmental change over time. Therefore, estimates of generation length are crucial to monitor demographic stability or future change in highly threatened organisms, particularly ectothermic tetrapods (amphibians and reptiles), which rank among the most threatened groups, but for which uncertainty in future impacts remains high. Despite its importance, generation length for amphibians and reptiles is largely missing. Here, we aimed to fill-in this gap by modeling generation lengths for amphibians, squamates and testudines as a function of species size, climate, life history, and phylogeny using generalized additive models and phylogenetic generalized least squares. We obtained estimates of generation lengths for 4,543 (52%) amphibians, 8,464 (72%) squamates and 118 (32%) testudines. Our models performed well for most families, for example Bufonidae in amphibians, Lacertidae and Colubridae in squamates and Geoemydidae in testudines, while we found high uncertainty around the prediction of a few families, notably Chamaeleonidae. Species body size and mean temperature were the main predictors of generation length in all groups. Although our estimates are not meant to substitute robust and validated measurements from field studies or natural history museums, they can help reduce existing biases in conservation assessments until field data will be comprehensively available.