Generation expansion planning scenarios to reduce natural gas dependency of Turkey

Abstract

Turkey relies heavily on natural gas in electricity generation and imports almost all of its natural gas needs. The country's natural gas import bill currently comprises a large proportion of the country's total energy bill, and the government of Turkey wants to reduce the weight of natural gas in the energy mix to reduce dependency in its energy policy. In this study, three different scenarios were considered to explore whether renewable energy sources or nuclear energy can be alternatives to natural gas to reduce energy dependency. The economic and technical analyses and comparisons of these scenarios have also been carried out. First, electricity generation expansion planning of Turkey for the 2015-2030 planning horizon was realized by using a genetic algorithm. In the first scenario, besides all conventional energy sources, renewable energy sources were included in the model as an input. In the second scenario, the first scenario was repeated without natural gas. In the third scenario, all conventional energy sources are included in the first scenario, except natural gas and renewable energy source. It was concluded from these calculations that nuclear energy is not likely to have a significant place in Turkey's future energy policy since it has a high investment cost and leads to dependence on foreign resources. Additionally, it is argued that renewable energy source cannot be an alternative to natural gas or other energy sources considering the low capacity factor and high investment costs.

Energy Crisis Risk Mitigation through Nuclear Power and RES as Alternative Solutions towards Self-Sufficiency

“…Another great advantage supporters of NPPs underline is the longevity of the main equipment of the nuclear power plants, the reactors. More specifically, the initial reactor designs were guaranteeing a 40-year operational lifespan of the reactors used; however, the evolution of technology extends their operational ability up to 80 years (Ozcan et al 2016). This is the strongest and most alluring benefit that nuclear energy has to offer.…”

“…This is a critical reason for Turkey's NPP cancellations. Another factor that increases the operational costs of NPPs is nuclear waste management, which requires substantial standard techniques and equipment (Ozcan et al 2016). Regarding waste management and disposal, this will be thoroughly described in a following Section (see Section 2.5), Cohen (1983) and Sirin (2010), emphasize the great danger that lies beneath waste management and disposal.…”