Generalized spatial–temporal regression graph convolutional transformer for traffic forecasting

Abstract

Spatial–temporal data is widely available in intelligent transportation systems, and accurately solving non-stationary of spatial–temporal regression is critical. In most traffic flow prediction research, the non-stationary solution of deep spatial–temporal regression tasks is typically formulated as a spatial–temporal graph modeling problem. However, there are several issues: (1) the coupled spatial–temporal regression approach renders it unfeasible to accurately learn the dependencies of diverse modalities; (2) the intricate stacking design of deep spatial–temporal network modules limits the interpretation and migration capability; (3) the ability to model dynamic spatial–temporal relationships is inadequate. To tackle the challenges mentioned above, we propose a novel unified spatial–temporal regression framework named Generalized Spatial–Temporal Regression Graph Convolutional Transformer (GSTRGCT) that extends panel model in spatial econometrics and combines it with deep neural networks to effectively model non-stationary relationships of spatial–temporal regression. Considering the coupling of existing deep spatial–temporal networks, we introduce the tensor decomposition to explicitly decompose the panel model into a tensor product of spatial regression on the spatial hyper-plane and temporal regression on the temporal hyper-plane. On the spatial hyper-plane, we present dynamic adaptive spatial weight network (DASWNN) to capture the global and local spatial correlations. Specifically, DASWNN adopts spatial weight neural network (SWNN) to learn the semantic global spatial correlation and dynamically adjusts the local changing spatial correlation by multiplying between spatial nodes embedding. On the temporal hyper-plane, we introduce the Auto-Correlation attention mechanism to capture the period-based temporal dependence. Extensive experiments on the two real-world traffic datasets show that GSTRGCT consistently outperforms other competitive methods with an average of 62% and 59% on predictive performance.