Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production in the Bakken Shale

Saputra, Wardana; Kirati, Wissem; Patzek, Tadeusz W

doi:10.20944/preprints201908.0195.v1

Cited by 3 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Interestingly, there has been a reduction in the use of the abbreviation "GPU" by researchers, as opposed to seven to eight years ago when the abbreviation was trending. The "Barnett" shale is one of the most well studied shale deposits, and the authors believe that the fading of interest in it is a natural phenomenon related to terminal production decline there [16]. Curiously, there increased interest in "basalt" at the turn of the century, and we observe the second increase in the early 2010s.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

“…We observe that the shale-related terms peaked between 2005 and 2015, and declined afterwards. In the past 20 years, "Bakken" [16,17] and "Barnett" [18,19] shales were mentioned more frequently than all other shale deposits. In 2019 "Marcellus," "Eagle" (Ford), and "Barnett" have similar occurrences, about one time per hundred pages.…”

Section: Processing and Data Acquisition Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Text Analysis Reveals Major Trends in Exploration Geophysics

Eltsov¹,

Yutkin²,

Patzek³

2020

Energies

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Evolution of professional language reveals advances in geophysics: researchers enthusiastically describe new methods of surveying, data processing techniques, and objects of their study. Geophysicists publish their cutting-edge research in the proceedings of international conferences to share their achievements with the world. Tracking changes in the professional language allows one to identify trends and current state of science. Here, we explain our text analysis of the last 30 annual conferences organized by the Society of Exploration Geophysicists (SEG). These conferences are among the largest geophysical gatherings worldwide. We split the 21,864 SEG articles into 52 million words and phrases, and analyze changes in their usage frequency over time. For example, we find that in 2019, the phrase “neural network” was used more often than “field data.” The word “shale” became less commonly used, but the term “unconventional” grew in frequency. An analysis of conference materials and metadata allows one to identify trends in a specific field of knowledge and predict its development in the near future.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Section: Processing and Data Acquisition Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Text Analysis Reveals Major Trends in Exploration Geophysics

Eltsov¹,

Yutkin²,

Patzek³

2020

Energies

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“…Lastly, we conduct a simple yet robust economic analysis to evaluate the profitability of each infill scenario. To our knowledge-other than our other paper [5]-this is the first successful attempt at the physics-guided, data-driven forecasting of all half a million wells in the Permian Basin. Policy-makers ought to use the results of this study to benchmark other estimates of resources in the Permian.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 87%

“…We start from identifying a minimum number of well cohorts in which oil production is statistically uniform. According to [5,[8][9][10][11], these well cohorts need to be spatiotemporal because: (1) Production varies spatially throughout different reservoir layers and areas due to the geological variation of mudrock formations; and (2) it varies with completion dates because of the advancement of well technologies.…”

Section: Design Of Spatio-temporal Well Cohortsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this paper, we concentrate only on the 53,708 hydrofractured horizontal wells that produce tight gas and oil in the Permian. The remaining vertical wells in the Permian conventional reservoirs are excluded from the dataset and analyzed separately in [5]. In addition to the geology-based resource assessments in the Permian by USGS [6] and EIA [7], we adopt a hybrid physics-guided, data-driven method of resource assessment that is more capable of capturing production dynamics of shale wells.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Forecast of Economic Tight Oil and Gas Production in Permian Basin

2021

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We adopt a physics-guided, data-driven method to predict the most likely future production from the largest tight oil and gas deposits in North America, the Permian Basin. We first divide the existing 53,708 horizontal hydrofractured wells into 36 spatiotemporal well cohorts based on different reservoir qualities and completion date intervals. For each cohort, we fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) statistics to the annual production and calculate the means to construct historical well prototypes. Using the physical scaling method, we extrapolate these well prototypes for several more decades. Our hybrid, physico-statistical prototypes are robust enough to history-match the entire production of the Permian mudstone formations. Next, we calculate the infill potential of each sub-region of the Permian and schedule the likely future drilling programs. To evaluate the profitability of each infill scenario, we conduct a robust economic analysis. We estimate that the Permian tight reservoirs contain 54–62 billion bbl of oil and 246–285 trillion scf of natural gas. With time, Permian is poised to be not only the most important tight oil producer in the U.S., but also the most important tight gas producer, surpassing the giant Marcellus shale play.

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Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling, and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

et al. 2019

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We develop a new method of predicting fieldwide gas or oil production from unconventional reservoirs, using the Barnett shale as an illustration. First, we divide the qualifying 13 141 horizontal gas wells in the Barnett into six static samples in which reservoir quality and completion technologies are similar. These samples contain wells of all ages. The Barnett samples coincide with the main gas producing counties, Tarrant, Johnson, Denton, Wise, Parker, and Hood. Second, for each sample, we use a purely data-driven nonparametric approach to arrive at appropriate generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions of gas production from the sample’s dynamic well cohorts with at least 1, 2, 3, ..., up to 14 years on production. We now have up to 14 cumulative probability distribution functions (cdfs) of annual well productivity per sample. From these cdfs, we stitch together six P 50, P 10, and P 90 statistical well prototypes, one per sample or county. Our statistical well prototypes are conditioned by well attrition, hydrofracture deterioration, pressure interference, well interference, progress in technology, and so forth. So far, there has been no physical scaling. Third, we fit the parameters of our physical scaling model to the statistical well prototypes and obtain their smooth extrapolations to 30 years on production. At late times, we add radial inflow of gas external to the stimulated reservoir volumes of the mean wells. Fourth, we calculate the number of potential wells per square mile of each Barnett county and schedule future drilling programs. We then stack up the extended well prototypes to obtain the plausible forecasts of gas production in the Barnett until the year 2034. We predict that the six Barnett counties will ultimately produce 24.5 trillion standard cubic feet (Tscf) of gas from the existing wells. On energy equivalent basis, in this “do nothing” scenario, these counties will produce 4.2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, making it one of the top producers of fuel for the US. Finally, we consider a possible addition of 4.5 Tscf from the future 3570 surviving wells or 6800 new wells drilled between 2019 and 2028. On the average, only 1/2 of the current Barnett wells will survive beyond 15 years on production.

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Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling and Forecasts of Oil Production in the Bakken Shale

Cited by 3 publications

References 26 publications

Text Analysis Reveals Major Trends in Exploration Geophysics

Text Analysis Reveals Major Trends in Exploration Geophysics

Forecast of Economic Tight Oil and Gas Production in Permian Basin

Generalized Extreme Value Statistics, Physical Scaling, and Forecasts of Gas Production in the Barnett Shale

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