General Criminal Dynamic Risk and Strength Factors Predict Short-Term General Recidivism Outcomes Among People Convicted of Sexual Crime During Community Supervision

Abstract

There are clinical practice and operational reasons why it may be appropriate to primarily focus on general risk factors when supervising people convicted of sexual crime in the community. General risk domains may be particularly relevant when supervision officers engage in frequent reassessment of acute dynamic risk factors. We tested the ability of a case management tool, the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry, to discriminate community based, short-term general (all outcome) recidivism versus nonrecidivism among people convicted of sexual crime ( n = 562). We tested the predictive discrimination validity of each DRAOR item and then subscale scores in univariate and multivariate models (also controlling for general static risk). DRAOR scores were associated with general recidivism outcomes and effect sizes were generally similar or stronger compared to models with people convicted of nonsexual crime ( n = 2854). DRAOR Acute scores were consistently and incrementally related to general recidivism outcomes beyond other scores. In practice, case managers should remain aware that people convicted of sexual crime are at risk for nonsexual recidivism outcomes and assess problematic functioning broadly alongside problems in sexual domains. Clinically, interconnection among domains potentially provides multiple avenues for effective intervention.

Psychometric Properties of a Risk Tool Across Indigenous Māori and European Samples in Aotearoa New Zealand: Measurement Invariance, Discrimination, and Calibration for Predicting Criminal Recidivism

“…We analyzed a subsample from a data set previously used to explore other research questions about predictive validity (de Roos et al, 2022;Lloyd, Hanson et al, 2020;Lloyd, Perley-Robertson, & Serin, 2020;Stone et al, 2021Stone et al, , 2022Stone et al, , 2023; the full data set contains records for all people (N = 3,694) released from prison on parole in Aotearoa NZ between April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2012. For our present analyses, we removed 273 records with missing data (either release date or DRAOR assessment information; see Lloyd, Hanson et al, 2020 for further information).…”