Gender disparity and temporal trend of liver cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predictions in a 25-year period

Abstract

ObjectiveThis study aims to reveal epidemiological features and trends of liver cancer (LC) in China.MethodsWe retrieved data from the Global Burden of Disease database 2019. Joinpoint regression was used to examine the temporal trend of LC. Future trends of LC were estimated using the Nordpred.ResultsThe incidence, mortality, and disability-standardized life year (DALY) rate of LC declined in China from 1990 to 2019. Among >210,000 LC cases in 2019, the LC incidences were nearly 3.15 times higher in males than in females. LC cases and LC-associated deaths were mostly found among patients aged 65 to 69 years. The proportion of LC attributable to hepatitis B decreased over time, whereas the proportions of LC attributable to hepatitis C, alcohol use, and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis increased modestly from 1990 to 2019. The majority of LC-associated deaths could be traced to four risk factors: smoking (20%), drug use (13.6%), alcohol use (11.7%), and high body mass index (10.1%). Based on the Nordpred prediction, there will be a steady decline in the incidence (39.0%) and mortality (38.3%) of liver cancer over a 25-year period from 2020 to 2044.ConclusionThe disease burden of liver cancer in China has declined over the past 30 years. However, it remains important to control liver cancer among high-risk populations, especially elderly males with obesity, alcohol use, tobacco use, and/or drug abuse.

Burden of Liver Cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and projections to 2044: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

“…As previously reported in South Korea and Taiwan China, the "lag effect" might account for the elevated disease burden in Mainland China, where the incidence of liver cancer among elderly hepatitis reservoirs remains high [15,30]. Yue et al found that the rate of elderly HCC patients increased by 55.9% in Mainland China over 3 decades, related deaths increased by 39.9%, and the corresponding disease burden increased by 31.4% [31]. Moreover, less than one-third of Chinese adults were reported to establish vaccine-mediated immunity for hepatitis virus, and these high-risk people might eventually contribute to the elevated disease burden of liver cancer in China [32].…”

Increasing Burden of Osteoarthritis in China: Trends and Projections from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

“…BAPC and Nordpred models are commonly used in projecting disease burden [ 26 , 27 ]. We first validated the accuracy of the 2 models using data from 1990 to 2019.…”

“…The Nordpred and BAPC models were used to project the disease burden parameters from osteoarthritis by sex from 2020 to 2039 [ 26 ]. To evaluate the performance of the Nordpred and BAPC models, data from 1990 to 2019 were divided into 2 intervals (1990–2009 and 2010–2019).…”

Global, regional and national burdens of Nasopharynx cancer in the adolescents and young adults from 1990 to 2019 and its predictions

“…The Nordpred method, widely recognized in scholarly discussions, is applied across Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions and in 21 regional forecasting models globally. It employs age-period-cohort analysis to predict future disease trends, providing a structured framework for estimating future health scenarios based on historical data and demographic dynamics [ 9 , 10 ].…”