Gender disparities in incidence and projections of lung cancer in China and the United States from 1978 to 2032: an age-period-cohort analysis

Xu, Minghan; Li, Mandi; Pei, Jiao; Wu, Chen-Chou; Jiang, Lin; Jiang, Min; Zhu, Cairong

doi:10.1007/s10552-022-01597-4

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…This study used a Bayesian annual percentage change (BAPC) model to make predictions of standardized mortality in AD and other dementias with high BMI. In Bayesian inference, uncertainty about all unknown parameters is considered, and for this study, non-informative priors were employed [ 21 ]. The BAPC model is generally based on Poisson regression models, treating the age effect as a row variable, the period effect as a column variable, and the cohort effect as a cross-effect of the age effect and the period effect to construct a three-factor model of age, period, and cohort [ 22 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long-term trends in Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias deaths with high body mass index in China from 1990 to 2019, and projections up to 2042

Tao,

Guo,

et al. 2024

Arch Public Health

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Background In China, the rising prevalence of high Body Mass Index (BMI) is linked to increasing health issues, including Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This study analyzes mortality trends related to AD and other dementias associated with high BMI from 1990 to 2019, considering age, period, and birth cohort effects, and forecasts future trends. Methods We analyzed mortality data for AD and other dementias linked to high BMI in Chinese residents from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 database. Using Joinpoint regression, we examined age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) trends and calculated annual and average annual percentage changes (APC and AAPC). Age-period-cohort models provided deeper insights, with Bayesian models used to project future ASMR trends to 2042. Results From 1990 to 2019, the ASMR for AD and other dementias associated with high BMI in China showed an overall increasing trend. Females had a lower increase rate than males, yet their overall levels remained higher. Specifically, the ASMR for males increased by an average of 2.70% per year, peaking between 2006 and 2010, while for females, it increased by an average of 2.29% per year, also peaking in the same period. Age-period-cohort analysis revealed increasing mortality relative risk with age and period, but a decrease with birth cohort. Projections suggest a continued rise in ASMR by 2042, with rates for males and females expected to be 2.48/100,000 and 2.94/100,000, respectively. Conclusion The increasing mortality trend from AD and other dementias associated with high BMI highlights the urgent need for policy interventions focused on overweight prevention, particularly vital for addressing the health challenges in China’s aging population.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%